In April 2018, the NDRMC-led multi-sector National Flood Task Force issued the first Flood Alert based on the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) Mid-Season Forecast for the belg/gu/ganna season (April to May 2018). Subsequently, on 20 May, the National Flood Task Force updated and issued a second Flood Alert based on the monthly NMA weather update for the month of May 2018 which indicates a geographic shift in rainfall from the southeastern parts of Ethiopia (Somali region) towards the western, central and some parts of northern Ethiopia including southern Oromia, some parts of SNNPR, Amhara, Gambella, Afar and Tigray during the month of May 2018.
On 29 May, the NMA issued a new weather forecast for the 2018 kiremt season indicating that many areas of northern, northeastern, central, western, southwestern, eastern and adjoining rift valleys are expected to receive dominantly above normal rainfall. In addition, southern highlands and southern Ethiopia are likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall activity, while normal rainfall activity is expected over pocket areas of northwestern Ethiopia. It is also likely that occasional heavy rainfall may inundate low-lying areas in and around river basins.
The Flood Alert has therefore been revised for the third time to provide updated information on the probable weather condition for the 2018 kiremt season and identify areas likely to be affected in the country to prompt timely mitigation, preparedness and response measures. The Alert will be further updated based on revisions in the NMA forecast and changes in the situation on the ground. The Alert will also form the basis for preparations of the contingency plan as required.