Attachments
Situation summary
Hundreds of fighters from a faction of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — led by Sanyi Nagasa entered rehabilitation camps in Oromia following the signing of a peace deal with the government. Meanwhile, in Amhara region, clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Fano militias intensified in Shewa Robit, Delanta, and Dega Damot woredas.
Fighters enter rehabilitation camps in Oromia region
Following a peace agreement signed on 1 December between the Oromia regional government and a faction of the OLA/OLF-Shane loyal to former central zone commander Sanyi Nagasa, hundreds of fighters entered government rehabilitation camps during the past week. As part of the agreement, government-run camps were set up in order to facilitate the integration of militants back to society. According to government sources, OLA/OLF-Shane fighters, mostly from West and South Shewa zones,1 have surrendered and entered rehabilitation centers in West Shewa, South West Shewa, and North Shewa zones, with many celebrating the agreement by firing weapons into the air. After gunfire was heard in the capital city Addis Ababa on 8 December that caused panic among residents, the city’s police made a statement explaining that the former OLA/OLF-Shane fighters discharged their weapons into the air in celebration as they passed through the capital en route to a rehabilitation camp.2 Similar gunfire was heard in other areas in Oromia region.3
In a press briefing aired on government television on 6 December, former commander Sanyi Nagasa provided an overview of the signed agreement, indicating specific provisions related to security and the rehabilitation of fighters. Among other things, he indicated that former OLA/OLF-Shane fighters would play a role in safety and security alongside military, police, and local militias. Nagasa also indicated that a joint committee had been established to oversee the implementation of the rehabilitation process, clarifying that any party unwilling to participate in the current agreement would not have a role in its execution.4 It seems this committee has been established in an effort to avoid disagreements similar to those over the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement between the government and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) party. The disagreement over the 2018 deal led to the split of the OLA/OLF-Shane from the OLF party, resulting in the current violent conflict between OLA/OLF-Shane and the government, which started in 2019. The full details of the current agreement signed by Sanyi Nagasa and the Oromia regional government are not yet publicly available. The OLA/OLF-Shane official spokesman has dismissed the agreement as “fabricated drama,” reiterating that Sanyi Nagasa was dismissed from the organization’s ranks many months earlier.5
While this week’s developments indicate a positive direction, it should not be assumed that violence in Oromia will end anytime soon. Notably, pressure exerted by the ongoing Fano insurgency in Amhara region is manifesting frequently in the form of active conflict involving Fano-associated militias along areas near the regional borders, spreading government security resources thin and opening opportunities for additional violence. On 2 December, suspected Fano militias from Kiramu woreda shot and killed at least five people in Amuru woreda near the Amhara and Oromia regional border. Over the past year, ACLED records at least 104 clashes and incidents when violence targeted civilians in Oromia region with Fano militias identified as the primary perpetrator. In areas where Fano militias have become increasingly active, both OLA/OLF-Shane and government forces have been involved in clashes with the group, while also simultaneously fighting each other.
Furthermore, the Ethiopian military sources claimed to have engaged in clashes with OLA/OLF-Shane forces in Guji, South West Shewa, West Shewa, East Wollega, and Horo Guduru Wollega zones during the week.
Over 30 officials killed in Amhara region
In Amhara region, clashes between the ENDF and Fano militias in Shewa Robit town in North Shewa zone resumed on 3 December, with fighting reported on 4 and 6 December. At least six civilians were killed during the fighting, along with an unknown number of combatants. Ethiopian military sources indicated that Fano militias were targeting the Shewa Robit prison. Similarly, five consecutive days of clashes were reported in Tsehay Mewcha town in Delanta woreda, South Wello zone, as ENDF troops attempted to regain control of the area. Fighting began on 28 November and houses and agricultural fields were damaged during heavy weapons use.
In Feres Bet town in Dega Damot woreda, West Gojam zone, on 5 December, Fano militias reportedly killed over 30 government officials, including the head of the woreda, after holding them and over 70 additional people hostage for two months, demanding ransom from their families. The militants killed the hostages after a clash with government forces in the area. Reportedly, Feres Bet has been controlled by Fano militias since October, and the militias withdrew from the town after clashing with government forces.6 During this clash, the ENDF also conducted multiple drone strikes, killing at least five people, including civilians and Fano militants.7 The drone strikes were not only limited to this area. On 2 December, an ENDF drone strike was reported in Bilbala town in North Wello zone, killing an elderly woman and two health workers.