Aid delivery into areas held by the TDF / TPLF, especially Tigray, will stay piecemeal, while both sides’ continuous claims of military success will remain difficult to verify. Meanwhile Ethiopia’s economy will likely suffer as a result of the ongoing conflict.
Aid supplies, especially into Tigray, will remain piecemeal, though government-held areas in Afar and Amhara will LIKELY see wider distribution; pressure from the international community may coerce the Ethiopian government to allow more aid through.
The “hungry” season (time between planting and harvest when food supplies are low) will exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Tigrayan held areas.
Ethiopia’s economy will remain fragile, with many overseas investors concerned over reputational risk.
The US is LIKELY to maintain pressure on the Ethiopian government, pushing them towards negotiations, though they will be wary of inflicting sanctions that would affect the region or influential US investors such as Boeing.
The conflict will continue for at least the next three months, with both sides gaining and losing ground, and will LIKELY extend further into Afar and Amhara.
Currently, it is UNLIKELY that the conflict will extend in the coming months directly into Addis Ababa or the Somali region of Ethiopia.
The conflict will largely be contained within Ethiopia for now, though neighbours Sudan and Egypt will LIKELY look to covertly aid the TDF/ TPLF and OLF where possible.
Violence against civilians will continue on all sides and LIKELY increase in the next three months.
Assessments of the context and the most appropriate mitigation measures may differ between HQ INGO staff and national partner organisations and national staff.