Attachments
Ethnic conflict will continue to spread throughout Amhara and Oromia regions, exacerbated by the numbers still requiring humanitarian support, a fragile economy and a contested border with Sudan in the al-Fashaga region. The regional fallout from the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will lead to further cyber-attacks against the dam infrastructure. This document provides information, analysis and recommendations for aid organisations working in Ethiopia.
Overview
• Protests, mainly in the northern Amhara region, have reportedly led to towns being brought to a standstill at the end of June.
• An unidentified armed group abducted an INGO aid worker on 27 June in Oromia and interrogated the staff member about their organisations' support for IDPs.
• Sudan launched a small-scale offensive against Ethiopian positions along the contested al-Fashaga border area.
• Ethiopia’s inflation hit 37%t in May, its highest since April 2011, though it eased to 34% in June.
• Ethiopia's Information Network Security Agency (INSA), reported on 03 May that it had stopped at least 5,856 cyber-attacks in the previous nine months.
Analysis
• Main Stream Media (MSM) and independent Ethiopia media sources claim that ethnic violence is once again increasing. Adding to the continuing tensions is the TPLF demand to regain parts of Western Tigray, which the Amharans currently hold and claim as their ancestral homeland.
• Analysis of reported violence shows very high levels of violence over the past six months in the Oromia region (279 reported incidents) and high levels in Amhara (66) and Afar (60), while reported incidents from Tigray have fallen to 26 - the same level of violence as reported from Benshangul/Gumuz and lower than numbers of reported incidents from SNNP region (34). Any activity can be interpreted as suspicious in such an environment where tensions are high.
• The Sudan – Ethiopia border dispute highlights the continued complexities of old historical grievances, as well as the need on both sides of the border for prime agricultural land, given the ongoing drought.
• A series of cyber-attacks over the past nine months have raised concerns over whether the GERD will be able to achieve planned electricity output.
Outlook
• Conflict will continue - in Afar, Amhara, and Oromia in particular - exacerbated by economic pressures and the inability to access sufficient food domestically, requiring aid agencies to adapt effective mitigation strategies.
• Aid organisations will need to invest in effective acceptance strategies to work successfully in such a challenging environment.
• The ethnic violence and small-scale clashes between state military, police and ethnic militias across the region require aid agencies to monitor carefully and plan prevention, mitigation, and response to violence affecting aid operations.
• Although the Sudan–Ethiopia border clash has been resolved diplomatically for now, this is likely to reoccur within the next three months, creating further challenges for humanitarian agencies supporting refugees in Sudan.The economy will remain fragile, though will grow, if it can weather the effects from the ongoing conflict in the North and East, and the current drought in the East and South. Inflation continues to rise (it had fallen in June) and this will impact both staff wellbeing (due to wage pressure) and aid agency operational planning.
• The GERD will continue to attract cyber-attacks as Egypt and Sudan remain concerned over its impact on their share of the Nile water (though Sudan is less affected by the loss of water).