This document summarizes the results of the 2009 joint Government and humanitarian partners' national contingency planning process, drawing on the findings of the midseason (mid-meher) assessment conducted between 28 September and 11 October 2009 and desk review of early warning information and post disaster assessment reports and trends in the coming months.
A consolidated overview of all scenarios (best, mid and worst cases) for the first half of 2010 and the corresponding sectoral humanitarian requirements under the most likely scenario have been identified in this document.
The most likely scenario for the Food and Agriculture sectors is based on the observed rainfall performance and its impact on crop production and the overall food security situation during and since the assessment period. A review of rainfall performance and its impact on food security situation specific to the woreda/zonal level was undertaken in identifying the most likely scenario. A mixture of the assumptions from the best, mid and worst case scenarios were, therefore, used to develop the most likely scenario for the respective regions.
The WASH sector assumes that the mid case scenario is the most likely scenario with poor rain conditions anticipated to continue in areas that normally receive seasonal rains between January and June, aggravating the current water shortage problems in many of the lowland areas of Afar, Amhara, Somali, SNNP, Oromia and Tigray regions.
A combination of different scenarios is used to develop the most likely scenario for the Health and Nutrition sector. Assumption for AWD, malaria and pandemic influenza and nutrition are made based on the mid-case scenario, while for meningitis and measles the worst case scenario is considered as the most likely scenario.
The Education sector identified approximately 200,000 school age children require emergency education interventions under the most likely scenario. The total net projected emergency food and non-food sectoral requirements under the most likely scenarios for January to June 2010 amount to USD 270 million.
Approximately 4.8 million people are estimated to require emergency food assistance. The gross food requirement stands at 529,148 MT. Considering the possible carryover stock from 2009 and confirmed pledges available for 2010, totaling to 272,612MT, the net food requirement for regular relief intervention is estimated to be 256,536MT, valued at approximately USD 195.2 million. Additionally, 26,500 MT of supplementary food that amounts to USD 24 million is required. A total of USD 50.9 million is also required to address projected non-food sectoral requirements in the heath and nutrition, water and sanitation and agriculture and livestock sectors.
The assessment and contingency planning process was led by the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS), with participation from the sectoral line ministries at the federal level, concerned regional bureaus, UN agencies, nongovernmental organizations and donors.