The ongoing meher harvest is playing a critical role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes across much of Ethiopia. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected to persist until at least mid-2025 in areas of the north, center, south, and east that are slowly recovering from previous drought and conflict shocks. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is anticipated in areas of Afar (specifically Zone 2 and Zone 4) and some remote areas of Tigray, which were severely affected by the 2020-2022 conflict in northern Ethiopia. Poor and displaced households have minimal own-produced food stocks and livestock holdings, and they are likely to rely heavily on social support, labor migration, and extensive consumption of wild foods to access food.
In the pastoral south and southeast, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected, with a portion of the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The population in need of food assistance is expected to rise sharply as food and income from livestock – most households’ primary asset – are expected to decline due to the impacts of atypically dry weather. Households in this region have had only a few seasons to recover from the historic 2020-2023 drought, and below-average herd sizes persist. Furthermore, inadequate rainfall in late 2024 and early 2025 is expected to diminish livestock health, saleability, and milk productivity. The southern border of Somali and Oromia regions is of highest concern.
Cumulative deyr/hageya rainfall totals from October to late November have been mixed. While rainfall has been generally average in the northern portion of the pastoral south and southeast, rainfall has been as much as 40-70 percent below average in areas along the Somalia and Kenya borders. The availability of pasture and water has followed rainfall trends, with poorer conditions observed in areas receiving the least amount of rainfall. While La Niña conditions are expected to be short lived in late 2024/early 2025, waning La Niña conditions are also expected to result in below-average rainfall during the March to May gu/genna rains. Similar to the current season, below-average rains will only temporarily alleviate low water and pasture availability, raising the risk of livestock productivity losses that would accelerate during the longer mid-2025 dry season. If the gu/genna rains fail in areas affected by severe deficits during the deyr/hageya season, there is potential for acute food insecurity outcomes to rapidly deteriorate in mid-2025.
Since adopting new monetary policies in late July, the Ethiopian government continues to take multiple measures to mitigate many of the resulting negative impacts, including price controls and subsidies; however, prices remain high amid the depreciated of the currency. The Ethiopian birr (ETB) depreciated by about 10 percent compared to the USD from September to October on the official market; however, the gap between the official and parallel market rates has narrowed. Annual headline inflation has continued to ease in 2024, falling to 16.1 percent in October (the lowest level since July 2019). As of late November, updates on price monitoring data for key staple food items from September onward are unavailable to FEWS NET.
Conflict in Amhara Region escalated in October and November as Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) efforts to combat Fano militias increased; however, levels of violence remain low to moderate overall. The fighting has been concentrated in South Wollo, East Gojjam, West Gojjam, and South Gondar. The conflict in Oromia also continues but with reduced intensity, as the ENDF shifts the deployment of its forces to Amhara. Meanwhile, political tensions in Western Tigray persist, which continues to prevent seasonal labor migration between the west and east. Ongoing harvesting activities are moderately disrupted in areas affected by conflict; however, households continue to engage in the harvest and, if conflict incidents do occur, they are returning to their fields after the conflict subsides. Harvest losses are expected to be moderate due to conflict.
Humanitarian food assistance distributions continued in October but at lower levels than in mid-2025, given the rising availability of household and market food supplies from the ongoing meher harvest. Humanitarians reached nearly 2.0 million people at least in October, though the Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Commission’s (EDRMC) distribution data had not yet been released as of November 30. Food assistance distributions are concentrated in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Somali regions. The number of people reached with food assistance declined by over 40 percent between September and October. While the decline in assistance delivery typically occurs during the harvest and post-harvest period, the number of people in need of food assistance remains atypically high for this time of year, and the level of food assistance is well below what is necessary to prevent the occurrence of widespread household food consumption gaps.
