Attachments
Key Messages
- Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in the lowland areas of East Hararghe, with gradual improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in June following theanticipated belg harvest and resulting improvement in food access. Above-average rainfall forecasts for the belg season persist, and are likely to support crop planting and development, improve pasture and water availability, and increase local agricultural labor opportunities and cash income for poor households. Planting progress is broadly on track, reaching around 50 and 90 percent of planned area planted in East and West Hararghe, respectively, with planting activities expected to continue through early April, according to the Disaster Risk Management Bureau.
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to remain widespread across the pastoral south and southeast, as poor food access persists ahead of seasonal improvements. Poor pastoral households are likely relying on increasingly unsustainable coping strategies amid food consumption gaps, as reflected in elevated malnutrition. Newly released data indicate therapeutic feeding program admission rates in January were up 55 percent year-on-year and 10 percent higher than the five-year average, though nutrition status is also influenced by underlying health and sanitation conditions. The March to May gu/genna rains are anticipated to be average; however, rainfall started in the last two days of March in most areas, except for parts of Shabelle and Dollo zones, which remain dry. Rainfall is expected to expand, but improvements in pasture, livestock productivity, and food access, and food consumption will be gradual.
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist in conflict-affected areas of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, as insecurity and market disruptions continue to constrain food access ahead of the belg harvest. In Amhara, March clashes – particularly in South and Central Gondar, with additional incidents in Gojjam, North Shewa, and North Wello – have disrupted the movement of people and goods, including along the Woldia–Woreta corridor, limiting supply and driving price increases. In Tigray, heightened tensions are constraining cash access and fuel availability and driving youth out-migration.Although belgrains began after a two- to three-week delay and planting is underway, near-term improvements in food access are expected to remain limited. Elevated therapeutic feeding admissions in Tigray – 82 percent above last year and 52 percent above the five-year average in January – indicate sustained acute malnutrition and highlight vulnerability to both food consumption and health-related drivers.
- Fuel shortages in Ethiopia linked to Middle East supply disruptions are constraining transport and market functioning, and are likely to increase food prices, decreasing household purchasing power. Fuelscarcity, especially of gasoline – evident in long queues in major cities, including Addis Ababa – has led authorities to prioritize fuel for security services, key industries (including export commodities), and the movement of essential goods, while restricting broader access. Fuel subsidy reforms planned under the International Monetary Fund-supported program are currently not progressing as initially planned, with the Ethiopian government still providing subsidies (though not enough to offset increased prices). Domestic fuel prices have also increased, with diesel rising by nearly 8.4 percent month-on-month. In Tigray, fuel supplies have been suspended, with parallel market prices three to four times higher than the past four to six months, further limiting movement and trade.
- Early signs point to a risk to crop production – especially for the main October meher harvest – from emerging fertilizer supply constraints and the potential development of El Niño. Fertilizer availability ahead of the main planting season in May could be disrupted by Middle East conflict-related impacts on Red Sea trade routes. While fertilizer for the smaller, current belg crop production season was likely secured, the main meher crop production season beginning in May remains vulnerable as application typically occurs through August. Although poor farmers use less fertilizer due to affordability issues, even wealthier farmers have high price sensitivity, and any delays or cost increases are likely to reduce fertilizer use and yields, ultimately reducing domestic food availability. Forecasts are indicative of El Niño developing in mid-2026. While the June-August kiremt rainfall that supports meher crop production is currently expected to be average, an early shift to El Niño could suppress rainfall and reduce meher harvest prospects.
- Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting export flows, increasing Ethiopia’s exposure to inflationary pressure. Reliance on Red Sea trade leaves Ethiopia highly exposed to maritime instability. Recent attacks from Iranian-Houthis signal risks of further disruption along key shipping routes. Disruptions to key exports – including livestock, cash crops, and increasingly gold, which surpassed coffee as the top export in 2024/25 – are expected to reduce foreign exchange earnings and constrain market activity. This will constrain imports and exports, and weaken the currency. In an already fragile macroeconomic context, reduced foreign exchange availability, combined with rising shipping costs, is likely to increase the import bill and drive further inflation. Early signs that the conflict in the Middle East is impacting livestock prices is emerging in the Somali Region. If disruptions persist, rising import prices and weaker export demand will erode household purchasing power and income.
- In southern agropastoral areas, recent belg rainfall is having mixed impacts: while supporting planting, heavy rains in March have also caused landslides and flooding in parts of South Ethiopia. Floods and landslides resulted in loss of life, displacement, and damage to crops and livestock, particularly in Gomo and South Omo zones, according to the Disaster Risk Management Bureau. These shocks are disrupting livelihoods – including local planting activities – and are likely to increase food assistance needs. While humanitarian support has been mobilized by the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, current assistance is estimated to reach only around 10 percent of the approximately 18,000 displaced households.