Consecutively poor Gu/Genna and Deyr/Hagaya 2016 seasons in worst-affected areas of southern and southeastern Ethiopia have led to declines in livestock productivity, deaths of livestock (mostly cattle) and sharp declines in livestock to cereal terms-of trade, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity in many pastoral areas. Forecasts for below-average Gu rains between March and May 2017 suggest further deterioration in food security is possible later in 2017.
Poor performance of the Kiremt rains in some lowland areas of eastern and central Oromia, northeastern SNNPR, and eastern Amhara led to below-average agricultural production for the second consecutive year. In southern Afar and Sitti Zone of Somali Region, low livestock herd sizes following the severe, El Nino-related drought in 2015. In these areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through at least May 2017.
The 2017 Humanitarian Resources Document released by the Government of Ethiopia estimates 5.6 million people will require emergency food assistance through June 2017, with funding requirements of approximately $948 million USD. According to the HRD, the number of people in need of emergency assistance are expected to be highest in Oromia Region, followed by Somali and SNNP Regions. The Government of Ethiopia plans to assist approximately half of those in need, while WFP and the JEOP will each cover approximately one-quarter of beneficiaries.