SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS
Improved rainfall and increased food and non-food aid pledges and distributions over the past several months have helped ease extreme food insecurity conditions, however, many at-risk pastoralists and vulnerable subsistent farmers require ongoing assistance in the coming months. According to the belg/gu season pre-harvest preliminary assessment results, the number of people in need of emergency assistance may increase by between 2.5 and 3 million for the second half of the year. While this will not change the peak number of 3.8 million emergency beneficiaries that was estimated in the May Flash Appeal, it does mean that these people will need to continue receiving food aid for a longer period of time than originally estimated. The additional beneficiaries would translate into an estimated additional emergency food aid requirement of close to 200,000 MT. While the global food aid pipeline and emergency food security reserves (EFSR) appear to be sufficient (even with the additional requirements) to last through the end of the year, irregular and delayed distributions are likely to result in serious nutritional consequences, especially in drought and flood affected areas (particularly in SNNPR, and pastoral regions of Somali and Afar). Therefore, to reduce uncertainties of income sources, the government and donors must ensure that already pledged resources are delivered in a timely and well-targeted way to these highly food insecure households.
SEASONAL TIMELINE
CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY
- Cereal prices remain at unseasonably high levels and continue increasing.
- Floods caused significant damage in the southeastern lowlands
- Tribal-based conflicts occurred in southern Oromiya and Afar regions
FOOD SECURITY SUMMARY
The belg/gu season assessment results, which are expected to guide relief needs and targeting for the second half of 2005, have not been officially released by the DPPC yet. However, based on what is known so far, it is likely that households in some lowland crop dependent areas and a significant proportion of pastoralists will continue to need emergency assistance through the second half of the year. As shown in Figure 1, areas of major food security concern continue to be the northern highlands, some parts of the south and east, and pastoralists in Afar and Somali Regions. In the chronically food insecure areas of central SNNPR; the lowlands of eastern Oromiya; southern and central Tigray; eastern Amhara Region; and the agro-pastoral lowlands of Bale and Hararghe zones, severe food problems remain despite the ongoing food aid effort and improved rainfall conditions. In Somali and SNNP regions where heavy rains damaged lives and livelihood and recovery needs more than one good season, the assistance will need to continue. Hence, emergency needs are expected to remain at peak levels from July through September. On the other hand, the situation in some kiremt (major rainy season) dependent areas could begin to improve if June - September rains and subsequent harvests are good as anticipated.
Figure 1: Areas of major food security concern as of July 2005
Source: DPPC; Graphics by FEWS NET
Note: All boundaries are unofficial and approximate.
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