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Belg production likely to be far below average in June/July
KEY MESSAGES
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Belg rains started late in most areas, and there have been several dry spells. Less land was prepared than normal, and planted area, in places, is as little as less than half of average.
The planting window for many crops, including maize, has closed. Moreover, some of the crops have already wilted. -
Accordingly, the Belg harvest will likely be delayed into July or August, extending the lean season. Production is expected to be far below average. Therefore, poor households, particularly those in Belg-dominant areas in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) and northeastern Amhara will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) only with humanitarian assistance in May and June and will move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July to September.
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With below-average rain in the previous two seasons and a well-below average rainfall since March, pasture, browse, and water availability is very low in Sitti (formerly Shinile) and Fafan (formerly Jijiga) Zones in Somali Region. Livestock body conditions are poor, and livestock productivity and values are low. Due to weakness and reduced disease resistance, unusual livestock deaths were reported in March and April. Accordingly, household incomes have not increased as they typically would after the rains started.