Conflict, localized poor harvests,and desert locust will likely lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in some areas
Food security continues to be of concern due to flooding, protracted impacts of past poor seasons, conflict and insecurity, desert locusts, and poor macroeconomic factors, despite the favorable 2019 Kiremt and Deyr seasons. Poor household income and food access from livestock and labor has declined in parts of the country while food prices remain atypically high. As a result, much of the eastern part of the country is expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to September. Humanitarian assistance is expected to improve outcomes in some areas to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!).
The impact of desert locusts on crops and pasture have been localized with relatively minor crop and pasture losses. However, the ongoing desert locust upsurge in the lowlands of northern, eastern, and southeastern areas continue to threaten both crops and pasture. Crop losses in belg-dependent areas are expected to be locally significant although have little impact on national production. In pastoral areas, some pasture losses are expected.
Although, the above average pasture from the Gu/Genna season will most likely mitigate impacts during the dry season in southern and southeastern pastoral areas.
Conflict, insecurity, ethnic violence, and the clash between state and non-state actors across the country, specifically in western and southern Oromia continue. This is increasing the loss of lives and livelihoods and displacement. Displaced households have difficulty accessing incomes and food and in some cases humanitarian assistance. These conditions are expected to continue throughout the scenario period and further increase as the August elections approach.
Despite average national production, staple food prices across much of the country are atypically increasing, including in central and western surplus-producing areas. Staple food prices are anticipated to continue increasing as the lean season approaches and the election period begins. Conflict is expected to disrupt the movement of food from surplus producing areas to deficit areas. As labor rates are not expected to keep pace with price increases, household purchasing power is expected to further deteriorate.