Ethiopia Food Security Outlook, October 2018 to May 2019

As pastoral and some agricultural areas cope with poor rainfall, conflict also drives needs in other areas

KEY MESSAGES

• Southeastern pastoral areas continue to recover from drought in 2016 and 2017, while northern pastoral Afar experienced poor rainfall throughout 2018. These areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least May 2019. Localized areas that saw poor 2018 Belg and/or Kiremt seasonal performance will also experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Additionally, conflict-affected woredas, particularly those that have seen associated levels of displacement, will also likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• June to September Kiremt seasonal rainfall was generally good throughout most of the country, and national Meher production is expected to be near average. Over parts of eastern Oromia, southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, and northern SNNPR, however, rainfall was below-average, leading to reduced production prospects. July to September Karan/Karma rains were also belowaverage in northern pastoral Afar. Although October to December 2018 Deyr seasonal accumulation in southern pastoral areas is forecast to be near average, to date in October, rainfall is below average.

• While the country continues to respond to the needs of drought affected populations, large populations are also displaced by conflict throughout the country. Areas where intercommunal clashes are having the most significant impact on food security outcomes include parts of Oromia, SNNPR, Somali, and Benishangul Gumuz regions.