Ethiopia Food Security Outlook, June 2018 to January 2019
Food security improves significantly in southeastern areas, but continued assistance is needed
• A recent FEWS NET survey in Dollo Zone of Somali Region suggests food security and nutrition outcomes have improved significantly in areas worst affected by drought in 2016 and 2017. These improvements are largely due to improvements in seasonal performance, continued humanitarian assistance delivery, and declines in disease outbreaks. Currently, worst affected areas such as Dollo Zone and much of southeastern Somali Region are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with humanitarian assistance preventing a further deterioration among some populations, particularly IDPs.
• While the risk of a deterioration beyond Emergency (IPC Phase 4) has declined, continued humanitarian assistance is needed through at least September, in order to sustain improved outcomes and offset seasonal declines in food access during the June to September dry season. Starting in October, improvements in livestock productivity, particularly from camels, should begin to drive longer-term improvements in food security.
• More than one million people are displaced in Ethiopia, most of whom have been displaced by conflict starting in September 2017 and many of whom are displaced along the OromiaSomali regional border where conflict has been reported to be most severe. In the near-term, this displacement is driving large-scale, multi-sectoral assistance needs. Disruptions to households’ ability to engage in their typical livelihoods activities, such as seasonal cultivation and raising of livestock, are likely to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, particularly in far western Somali Region and in southern SNNPR.
• The 2018 Belg (March to May) rains performed very poorly over most northern Belg-producing areas, leading harvests to be as much as 40 percent below average and delayed by one to two months. Areas worst affected include eastern Amhara and southern Tigray. Meanwhile, Belg harvests are improving food security outcomes in SNNPR, and the onset of Kiremt (June to September) seasonal rainfall has been near to slightly above average over most Kiremt-receiving areas of the country.