Emergency outcomes likely to persist in southeastern pastoral areas
The greatest areas of concern in Ethiopia are in Dollo and Korahe zones in Somali Region where poor households are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through January 2018. Food assistance delivery by both WFP and the Somali Regional Government has been interrupted since mid-May, and if it does not resume by the end of July, some of the worst-affected households are expected to move into Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and levels of acute malnutrition and mortality may rise further.
Following the below-average performance of the Gu/Genna rainy season after the failed previous season, other southeastern pastoral areas are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least November due to the poor regeneration of pasture and water resources that have negatively impacted livestock productivity and household income. The forecasted above-average 2017 Deyr rainy season is expected to lead to gradual improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity, improving household food and income access.
The 2017 Belg harvests are estimated to be below average in most Belg-producing areas of the country, which will lead to a significant reduction in household food access. Late planting, particularly in lowland areas of SNNPR, has led to a two-month delay in the harvest. Poor households in portions of SNNPR, eastern Oromia, and northeastern Amhara are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the lean period through the end of September.
Pledged and available resources for PSNP and humanitarian assistance, associated with the Ethiopia Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD), is only expected through the end of June. Although additional funding has been committed to WFP and JEOP, specific funding levels, timing of deliveries, and the number of beneficiaries that will be able to be reached are currently unclear. In Somali Region, where the needs are the highest, the numbers exceed the planned beneficiary amounts, and emergency assistance will be required through at least early 2018. In JEOP operational areas of Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, and SNNPR, the needs for emergency food assistance are expected to decline in October with the Meher harvest.