Attachments
Key Messages
- Acute food insecurity remains widespread, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persisting in the worst-affected areas. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected through May across the East Hararghe lowlands and among the most drought-vulnerable pastoral households in southern and southeastern areas (notably Afder, Liban, and Dawa). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain widespread across drought- and conflict-affected areas. High market dependence and below-average livestock productivity are sustaining large to moderate food consumption gaps as crop-dependent households await the belg and/or meher and livestock-dependent households await rains to replenish pastures.
- Food assistance needs are expected to seasonally increase, peaking during the June to August lean season as household food stocks deplete and market reliance increases. In meher-dependent areas, rising staple food prices, constrained labor and self-employment opportunities, and conflict-related disruptions will likely drive food consumption deterioration starting in June. In pastoral areas, limited livestock recovery and low milk availability – followed by the June-September dry period – will sustain consumption gaps.
- Escalating conflict in northern Ethiopia and continued insecurity in Amhara, Oromia, and Afar are likely to disrupt trade corridors, increase displacement, and further constrain income and market access during the lean season. Large-scale troop mobilization and renewed clashes raise the risk of transport disruptions, localized price spikes, and reduced access to labor migration and trade, particularly in northern cropping and pastoral areas where market dependence is increasing.
- Humanitarian assistance is mitigating outcomes in select areas, but funding shortfalls and access constraints are limiting coverage and transfer values. Assistance has mitigated food consumption deficits, driving Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in some areas, yet ration reductions – including in refugee operations – and delivery constraints in insecure areas are expected to prevent broader improvement and will be insufficient to offset seasonal deterioration through the lean period.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of February 26, 2026.