Attachments
Key Messages
- Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will most likely emerge in lowland areas of East Hararghe Zone of Oromia Region in early 2026. Poor households in this area had minimal to no production in 2025 and are currently atypically market dependent during the harvest period with below-average income. Some households are already engaging in more severe coping strategies to access food. In early 2026, as seasonally available labor declines and food prices increase, poor households will likely face extreme difficulty accessing food with associated high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality associated with food consumption deficits.
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will likely persist through May in southern and southeastern pastoral areas. Households recently displaced due to conflict in these areas are of high concern, as some likely face extreme difficulty accessing food. Delayed October to December 2025 deyr/hageya rains and forecasted below-average rainfall will likely further impede recovery from the 2020-2023 severe drought as pastoralists cope with a second or even third consecutive poor season. If the deyr/hageya season fails, the population in need of food assistance will likely rapidly rise; and if the February to May gu/genna rains are significantly below-average, acute food insecurity could rapidly deteriorate by mid-2026.
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in northwestern parts of Afar. Conflict-affected areas, along with several woredas in Zone 1, are projected to face continued access constraints to food and cash income, despite gradual conflict recovery. Poor households are likely to adopt livelihood coping strategies amid low purchasing power.
- Food assistance needs are expected to decrease across Ethiopia with the ongoing meher harvest, but needs will likely increase starting in early 2026. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across much of the north, northeast, and central parts of the country from October to January, driven by average meher production. In areas with below-average meher harvests, stocks are expected to deplete atypically early, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 29, 2025.