ReliefWeb

In Ethiopia’s Somali Region, a food security Emergency is ongoing following a severe drought over the past year. This drought has resulted in very large livestock losses which have sharply reduced households’ access to food and have driven large-scale displacement. Serious human disease outbreaks are also ongoing. FEWS NET rapid assessments and other field reporting indicate high levels of acute malnutrition, excess mortality among children, and a heavy reliance on emergency food aid, especially in Dollo, Korahe, Afder, and Jarar Zones, where the drought has been most severe. Field reports indicate that food assistance delivery has been interrupted in Dollo and Korahe Zones, and even in areas where assistance delivery continues, the amount of aid provided is inadequate to fully address emergency needs. This suggests that food security outcomes could deteriorate further over the coming weeks, to extreme levels, if additional assistance is not provided quickly.

Rainfall over the Horn of Africa was below average over the last year with significant impacts on food security across much of the sub-region. Ethiopia’s Somali Region is one area that has been especially dry, with large areas experiencing Extreme or Exceptional Drought (Figure 1). This drought, and its impacts on pasture and water availability, has resulted in significant declines in household livestock holdings due to both distress sales and deaths. While food prices remain generally stable and some safety-net transfers have occurred, the magnitude of these livestock losses has sharply reduced households’ access to food by limiting income from both livestock/milk sales and, given the deaths of pack camels, other income-generating activities, like charcoal and firewood production.

As of June, the worst-affected households were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), meaning that they faced large gaps in meeting their basic food needs or that these gaps were imminent given recent asset stripping. This lack of food has driven large-scale displacement and the concentration of households in IDP camps. It has also, in combination with serious outbreaks of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) and measles, contributed to atypically high levels of acute malnutrition. Excess mortality among children has also been reported from the worst-affected areas. In Somali Region, almost no emergency food assistance has been provided since the conclusion of the fourth round of food aid distributions in June, in part due to a lack of funding. Supplementary feeding (TSF and BSF) is being provided in some areas, but there are concerns related to funding and the timeliness of delivery after August.

While April/May rainfall has modestly replenished water sources, pasture, and browse, and forecasts for the upcoming October-December rainy season are positive, the outlook for pastoralist food security in Somali Region is still very concerning. Households have few, if any, livestock to sell and given the lack of camel and goat conceptions during the past two seasons, milk availability will remain very low during 2017 and herd sizes will increase very slowly, even if the October to December rains are good. To quantify the impact of the drought on local households, FEWS NET conducted a Household Economy Approach (HEA) Outcome Analysis, using the recently updated baselines for Somali Region. This analysis indicates that, even with safety-net transfers, approximately 2.7 million people will require emergency food assistance in Somali Region during the July-December period. Of this total, roughly two-thirds will face survival deficits (see note above) of more than 20 percent, indicating Emergency (IPC Phase 4). During the July-September dry season, areas of particular concern include the Afder Pastoral (AFP), and Lowland Hawd Pastoral (LHP) livelihood zones, where poor households are projected to face survival deficits which approach 50 percent - the threshold for Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) 2. During the October-December Deyr rainy season, some improvements in pastoral areas are expected. Though emergency food assistance needs will persist in these areas (especially in the Harshin-Degahabur East Pastoral Zone [HDP]), the worst food security outcomes during this period will likely occur in agricultural and agropastoral areas, including the Shabelle Riverine, Liban Agropastoral, and Dawa-Ganale Riverine livelihood zones (Figure 3).

Given the severity of current and projected food security outcomes, and continued delays in the provision of emergency food assistance, poor households in the worst-affected pastoral areas may already be moving into Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and levels of acute malnutrition and mortality may rise further. An immediate resumption of emergency food distributions is critically needed in Dollo, Korahe, and Afder zones, alongside a continuation of nutrition, health, and WASH programming. Once assistance resumes, it should continue through at least early 2018. At a regional level, food assistance planning should consider that the population in need of emergency food assistance that is suggested by the FEWS NET outcome analysis is significantly larger than current food assistance delivery plans.