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SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the crisis
Following the onset of Kermet seasonal rains starting July 2024, the situation in Ethiopia has escalated into a humanitarian crisis. Updates from The Ethiopian Red Cross Society Emergency Operations Center (ERCS - EOC), OCHA and EDRMC, reports over 430,000 individuals have been impacted by the heavy rains, landslide and flooding that occurred between July and August across 14 districts in the Amhara, Oromia, Sidama, Tigray, Gambella, Southern and Southwestern regions. Since the launch of the IFRC supported Emergency Appeal (EA), several floods and landslides have occurred in 17 woredas, following the main landslide in Gofa that triggered the launch of the EA. This led to an additional impact over 286,971 people, displacing 104,535 and 186 more people reported dead. At least 8,659 hectares of cropland were damaged, 113 livestock have died, and 277 houses destroyed.
Oromia Region has the highest number of affected communities, which will likely to increase with recent reports of increasing volume of the Awash River. In the South Ethiopia Region, another landslide hit Wolayta zone, claiming 13 lives and displaced more than 12,600 people; and Gamo zone, on August 15th, 2024, killing four people and displacing 1,000 people. The most recent flooding hit Desnech Woreda, South Omo Zone, an estimated 12,000 people are reportedly displaced, with expected more flooding due to heavy rains in the upstream highlands in the South and Southwest Ethiopia Regions, puts the Desnech Woreda capital, Omorate town, Gamo, Goffa, Wolayita, Konso, Dawuro and Keffa zones are at high risk of flooding and landslides.
In the Southwest Regional State of Ethiopia, Kecha woreda, landslides on 26th July killed 3 people and displaced 532 people, in Sidama Region landslide claimed the lives of 11 people and displaced 11,000 people, and 13 people dead with floods displacing 12,588. In Tigray, Adwa woreda, 108 people were displaced by a landslide, 9 houses demolished, no fatalities reported. In Central Ethiopia region, additional to Gurage zone hit by windstorm, Silte, Halaba and Hadiya zones were severely affected by floods displacing more than 14,000 people, Gambella Region reported the latest flood-induced displacements of 21,060 people due to heavy rains in Gog, Lare, Jor and Wanthwa woredas of Anywaa and Nuer zones. More flooding was reported in Amhara, affecting 3 woredas in the South Gonder zone, affecting 18,950 people and displacing more than 6,000 people.
As the crisis intensified, the government activated the multi-hazard contingency plan and engaged partners to respond, however, the response has been hampered by limited resources.
The overall, Ethiopia Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) is 18.2 percent funded to August 2024. Food as well as shelter, NFI, WASH, protection, health and education are priority needs in the affected areas. The weather forecast for August-October-2024 shows wetter than usual conditions expected over central to northern Ethiopia, which may increase risk and vulnerability, especially in areas recovering from last year’s El-Nino impacts.
In response to the Gofa landslide, the ERCS, in coordination with the Government (EDRMC), supported the evacuation of more than 6,600 people from the two affected kebeles, and 17,400 people were evacuated from the 15 other kebeles identified as being at-risk. Overall, at least 24,000 people at-risk of landslides across 20 of the 29 kebeles in Geze Gofa Woreda have been targeted for relocation to safer areas. Other essential basic services are being provided, but several gaps have been identified.
On the other hand, after severe floods, La Niña condition this year may induce periods of drought in agro-pastoralist and pastoralist areas reliant on the October-December Deyr/Hegaya rainy season. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) for the October-December Deyr/Hegaya seasonal rains in the lowlands of Somali, Oromia and Southern Ethiopia regions. In fact, on September 9th, the Met services confirmed that the trigger for drought had been reached and ERCS activated the anticipatory actions in two main zones of Shebele (Somali region and East Bale (Oromia region) targeting around 14,000 HHs in both zones with early actions such as: risk communication, community mobilisation for water conservation to enhance agricultural production, enhance fodder availability through rangeland management by CFW.