Ethiopia: Flash Analysis and Prediction (28 January 2022)


Ethiopian military threaten new offensive despite ceasefire broadly holding. Rising death toll from airstrikes against civilian targets.


• On 20 January, the ENDF’s Deputy Chief of Staff, Gen Abebaw Tadesse, said that troops were preparing for a new offensive against Tigray adding that “Tigray is Ethiopia’s territory”.

• The current ceasefire broadly continues to hold despite limited clashes on the borders of Tigray, shelling by the Eritrean army and a rising death toll from airstrikes against civilian targets.

• The Director General of the World Health Organisation described the situation in Tigray as “hell” noting that all attempts to deliver lifesaving medicines had been blocked by the Ethiopian government.

• The Ethiopian government has made some overt moves towards peace talks, announcing the release of 39 high profile political prisoners at Orthodox Christmas.