Ethiopia: Flash Analysis and Prediction (12 November 2021)

Situation Report
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The TDF and their new opposition alliance will continue to extend their control over supply routes into Addis, as they seek to remove the current government from power.

The Ethiopian Government declared on 11 November that they “strongly believe that war isn’t the solution”. This follows a three-pronged diplomatic effort by the Africa Union, UN and US over the last week, with AU's special representative for the Horn of Africa former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo meeting (having flown into Addis Ababa on 04 November) with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, plus the opposition alliance leaders to discuss ceasefire details.

Meanwhile, Head of OCHA Martin Griffiths left Ethiopia on 08 November, having carried out four days of meetings, including travelling to Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, to discuss the current humanitarian situation, where no aid has been allowed in since 18 October. The US Horn of Africa Envoy, Jeffrey Feltman, also flew in on 04 November, discussing the current situation with the government in Addis. This comes as the Government threatened any Ethiopian working for either the UN or AU with arrest if they broke the law, having detained at least 88 UN/ WFP local staff members (many of whom had a Tigrayan background) between 09 – 10 November.