Summary of Key Findings:
• Routine support already provided under the Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) and Humanitarian Assistance (HA) is estimated to have saved $859m in one year in reduced aid costs as well as avoided income and livestock losses. An increased investment in cash+/resilience investments would have increased savings to $871m.
• The economic model suggests that a timely response to expanded caseloads under COVID-19 could have saved upwards of $269m, depending on the scale of expansion. Savings to programme costs alone would have allowed the programme to reach an additional 3.1m people in need. Investment in a package of cash+/resilience building measures would have yielded a return on investment up to $3.5 for every $1 spent.
• The findings suggest that investment in models that can deliver a timely response, complemented by longer term resilience, is critical for delivering effectiveness gains. Crisis financing, shock responsive social protection systems, complemented by delivery via networks of local actors and cash delivery, are fundamentally required.