East Africa Seasonal Monitor: September 25, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 25 Sep 2013 View Original

Late planting in eastern Sudan and northwestern Ethiopia followed by continuation of rainfall deficits


• As the June to September seasonal rains gradually cease this month, agricultural production is likely to be below average for cereals in eastern Sudan, according to recent estimates by field assessment teams. Other areas impacted by the late start of season are parts of northwestern Ethiopia where a late start and overall below average June to September rainfall led to the planting of short-cycle instead of high yielding long-cycle crops and western Eritrea (Figure 1).

• Overall, June to September rains have largely been normal to above normal in terms of amounts over the main cropping areas in western Ethiopia and South Sudan (Figure 1). The rains have also continued to support regeneration of rangeland resources in the northern sector of East Africa. This is despite flooding reported in parts of Sudan and Ethiopia in July and August (Figure 2).

• Short-term forecasts suggest a mostly normal timing of the withdrawal of the June to September rains. With a late start in parts of northwestern Ethiopia, eastern Sudan, and southwestern Eritrea, this will have significantly reduced the total length of the rainy season.