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East Africa Seasonal Monitor - November 30, 2021

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Moderate to extreme drought conditions persist over several regions of East Africa

KEY MESSAGES

• Prolonged moderate to severe drought conditions (SPI < -0.7) have persisted over much of the eastern Horn. The on-going deyr/short rains are the third consecutive poor rainfall season in the drought affected areas of Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia and northern and eastern Kenya.

• The northern sector of East Africa remains abnormally wetter than average during the area’s typical dry and hot season. Similarly, above-average rainfall has continued in bimodal areas of northeastern Uganda and unimodal western areas of Kenya, where it has increased the likelihood of localized flooding, and in parts of South Sudan, where it has sustained high flood extent.

• Crops and livestock production prospects remain poor, with no effective start of rainfall for planting and crop growth over much of the eastern Horn, along with extremely poor rangeland resources (pasture, browse, and water) in drought-hit pastoral areas. Similar poor conditions are also present in the bi-modal northeastern regions of Tanzania.

• As the rains progress southwards to Tanzania in December, the October to December seasonal rains are expected to come to a timely end in mid- to late-December. Rainfall is expected to be cumulatively well-below average despite moderate to locally heavy rainfall forecast in parts of the eastern Horn in December.