Attachments
Key Messages
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The onset of the March – May rainy season was mixed across the region. Most areas experienced the start of the seasonal rains in early- to late-March, with abnormally heavy to very heavy episodic rainfall (more than 200 percent of average amounts) over the western and northern sectors of the region. Meanwhile, the rains are yet to be fully established over coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania, with evidence of significant early season deficits (less than 60 percent of average amounts), attributed to persistent impacts of tropical cyclone Freddy, which diverted moisture and rainfall to southern Africa.
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The recent rains have had beneficial impacts on rangeland resources (pasture and water resources) and have facilitated planting activities in zones with medium to high potential for cereal crops. However, the episodic heavy rains have reportedly led to flash floods due to high water runoff in extremely dry and hardened land following the prolonged severe drought conditions since 2020. These flash floods caused serious property damage and loss of livestock in several cities and pastoral regions of eastern Ethiopia and northern and western Kenya.
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Available forecasts for April indicate the full establishment of seasonal rains and an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions across equatorial East Africa at the peak of the seasonal rains in April. However, there are also indications of likely persistent below-average rainfall performance over portions of East Africa’s coastal strip and parts of the western sector during this month. Land surface temperature are forecast to be generally near average across the region.
Seasonal Progress
Early to timely onset of seasonal rains in March occurred over the northern and western sector of the region, including much of Yemen, Djibouti, Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, Uganda, western and some central counties of Kenya, and over pastoral regions of Ethiopia, northern Kenya, and Somalia. In contrast, Rwanda, northern Burundi,
Tanzania, and southern Kenya have observed significantly delayed onsets of 20-30 days, and portions of southern Kenya and southern Somalia have yet to experience the establishment of the seasonal rains.
March rainfall was abnormally heavy in most areas (Figure 1), mainly attributed to the passage of an atmospheric perturbation known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). These rains were associated with flash floods in Kisumu, Nairobi, and Marsabit in Kenya; Borena in Ethiopia; and southern Somalia (due to high Juba River levels).
On the other hand, significant early season rainfall deficits were recorded in eastern areas of Tanzania, Kenya, and on the periphery of western Ethiopia. This is due to the adverse impacts of tropical cyclone Freddy, which diverted moisture and associated heavy tropical rains into Mozambique, Malawi, and the neighboring southern African countries.
Current satellite-derived vegetation anomalies reveal significant improvement in greenness of vegetation including pasture in the northern sector of the region – especially Yemen, Djibouti, and parts of central and northern rift valley regions of Ethiopia and into South Sudan – in response to the recent moderate to very heavy rains (Figure 2).
The full beneficial impacts of the ongoing rains on vegetation conditions are likely to become more evident in coming weeks across much of East Africa. However, vegetation conditions in coastal regions of northern Tanzania and southern Kenya are expected to remain generally drier-than-normal given current and forecast rainfall conditions.
Surface water resources have also been significantly replenished and are generally nearly at bankfull levels.
This includes some seasonal rivers in pastoral and parts of agropastoral livelihood zones in the eastern Horn, where the rains have been heavy to very heavy. However, these surface water resources are subject to siltation due to high run-off, resulting in poor quality of water for human and livestock consumption.
While the above-average rainfall received in March was overall a welcome short-term relief for most of the worst drought-affected areas of the eastern Horn, some areas experienced the negative impacts of severe flooding, which damaged property and killed livestock.
Additionally, it should be emphasized that full recovery from the historic five-season drought in the region – which devastated livestock herds and highly degraded environmental conditions – will take several seasons or even years of good rainfall performance.