East Africa Seasonal Monitor: January 6, 2017
October to December rainfall totals well below average in Eastern Horn as season ends
Between mid-December and early January, little to no rain fell in most northern areas of East Africa, including areas of Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and northeastern Kenya that have been worst affected by atypically severe dryness during the October to December rainy season. Overall, the October to December season performed very poorly in much of the Eastern Horn of Africa, with rainfall starting as many as four weeks late, prolonged dry spells, and cumulative rainfall less than 50 percent of average in many areas.
Rainfall has been below-average since mid-December in much of Tanzania, western Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda. In Tanzania and Burundi, rainfall during the next two weeks may contribute to some improvements to cropping conditions, while harvest prospects remain poor in Uganda, parts of Kenya and Tanzania, and reduced yields are expected in localized areas of Rwanda.
During the next two weeks, seasonal rainfall is expected to continue moving further south, resulting in seasonally dry weather over many northern areas of East Africa. Seasonal dryness in much of the Horn is likely to aggravate already poorer than usual pastoral conditions, with further deterioration likely through at least the start of the next rainy season in March 2017.