Drought conditions exacerbated by above-average surface temperatures over Eastern Horn January 2017
As this is the dry season for most areas in the region, the hotter-than-normal land surface temperatures across the Eastern Horn, which are forecast to continue, are exacerbating drought conditions in many areas of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia. As a result, a rapid depletion in water and pasture resources is likely to continue in pastoral areas.
Rainfall since early January has continued to be below-average in unimodal Tanzania, following a delayed onset, causing crop moisture stress in key agricultural zones. Similarly, in the bimodal cropping regions of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, end of the season rainfall in January was not sufficient to support full maize crop growth in many areas, likely affecting yields.
During the next two weeks, seasonal rainfall is expected to intensify in Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern DRC, but the amounts are unlikely to fully eliminate the current large cumulative deficits, especially in Tanzania. Seasonally dry weather is expected to prevail over northern areas of East Africa.