Increased, unseasonal rainfall forecast in some drought-affected areas
Vegetation conditions remain very poor in much of East Africa, following very poor rainfall between October and January in many areas, particularly in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, northern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania. Vegetations have continued to deteriorate into February, particularly in the Horn, as the dry season has continued.
Southern Tanzania received heavy rains in the past week, which has helped to ease seasonal rainfall deficits. However, Msimu rainfall remains well below average in many unimodal areas of the country, which could affect production in higher-producing areas.
The presence of a tropical cyclone (Dineo), currently located over the Mozambique Channel, is forecast to bring unseasonal moderate to heavy rains across much of Tanzania and parts of Kenya, Ethiopia,
Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi during the coming week. This may slightly ease the currently very dry conditions in these areas, prior to the onset of seasonal rains in the Horn.