• Rainfall from September to December was characterized by a significantly delayed onset, uneven distribution, and largely below average performance over much of the eastern Horn. The 2021 deyr/hageya/short rains season was a poor season comparable to 2016 with some areas of southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia receiving even lower rainfall than October to December 2016. Drought severity will likely intensify through the January to March dry season, as above-average temperatures further deplete water and pasture resources.
• Agricultural production prospects are likely to be poor to failure for much of the eastern Horn, marking three consecutive below-average harvests. In marginal agricultural areas of Somalia and Kenya, preliminary estimates based on available assessments indicate the January/February 2022 cereal harvests are 60-70 percent below average.
• In pastoral areas of southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya, rainfall in late November and December improved rangeland resource availability in the short term. Ongoing livestock migration from rainfall-deficit areas to areas with more favorable grazing options will likely lead to the quick depletion of these renewed pasture and water resources.
• There is an increased likelihood for the continuation of dry and hotterthan-normal normal conditions across the eastern Horn over the next two weeks, along with Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda. The tropical rainfall system remains firmly established in Tanzania and southern Africa. Light to moderate rainfall is forecast over DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of Ethiopia and Kenya.