East Africa Regional Market & Trade Update (November 2019)

Main Highlights:

• Cereal prices exhibited mixed trends across most markets between July and September 2019; they were largely within seasonal patterns but significantly higher than last year and the five-year average.

• Prices of small ruminants stabilized or decreased and were near normal in Kenya and Ethiopia but increased slightly and were above the five-year average in Somalia during the reporting period.

• Household purchasing power of farmers and livestock keepers was lower than the five-year average in many areas given high cereal prices, stable livestock prices and low levels of sellable stock.

• Regional trade in maize declined in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2018 and the five-year average, due to below to near normal crop production.

• Overall, cereal prices are projected to remain high through December 2019, though some seasonal price decline is expected in most reference markets as new harvests are realized.

• The annual regional supply and trade in maize is expected to decline due to reduced exportable surplus, necessitating cereal imports from beyond the Region.