WESTERN REGION: CALM SITUATION. Scattered hoppers and adults from local breeding in Mali and Chad. FORECAST. No significant developments.
CENTRAL REGION: THREAT SITUATION. Control operations continue in northern Somalia (9 972 ha treated) and started in eastern Ethiopia (3 657 ha) against a few remaining small spring-bred immature swarms; hopper bands and new immature swarms form in the northeast (Afar) and north (Tigray, Amhara) of Ethiopia where survey and control were limited due to access and insecurity; hopper bands form in Djibouti. Hopper bands and swarms form in Yemen interior (417 ha) where control limited by beekeepers. Small-scale breeding in Sudan (1 400 ha) with a few hopper and adult groups. Isolated adults in Egypt. FORECAST. More immature swarms will form in northeast and northern Ethiopia and move to the Eritrea Red Sea coast and eastern Ethiopia, including adjacent areas of northern Somalia. Maturation and breeding will occur with the onset of the rains in both destinations. A few small swarms may also form in Djibouti and move to Somalia. More small swarms will form in the Yemen interior, some of which could move to the Gulf of Aden coast and Red Sea coast of Yemen and Saudi Arabia for winter breeding while others may cross to northern Somalia. A few small groups may form in Sudan and move to the Red Sea coast for winter breeding.
EASTERN REGION: CALM SITUATION. No locusts present. FORECAST. No significant developments.
New swarms form in NE Ethiopia
The locust situation remains serious in the Horn of Africa and Yemen. As anticipated, new immature swarms began to form after mid-September in the summer breeding areas of northeast Ethiopia and most likely in adjacent areas of the northern highlands where hopper bands were reported. The scale of the breeding is not well known, and control operations could not be conducted due to insecurity. Although limited field operations began to resume in some areas by the end of the month, more small immature swarms will form in Afar, Tigray, and Amhara regions of Ethiopia during October. As vegetation dries out, they will migrate north through the highlands to Eritrea and the Red Sea coast as well as east perhaps through Djibouti at times to eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. October rains that are expected in the Somali region of eastern Ethiopia and adjacent plateau and coastal areas of northern Somalia will allow the summer-bred swarms and the remaining spring-bred swarms to mature and lay eggs, giving rise to hatching and hopper band formation from about early November onwards. Similarly, any swarms that reach the Red Sea coast of Eritrea from northern Ethiopia are likely to mature and breed once winter rains commence. Although limited control operations were carried out in the interior of Yemen, more small swarms are expected to form and move to coastal areas along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for eventual breeding. A few swarms may cross to northern Somalia while any swarms that reach the Red Sea coast of Yemen could continue to adjacent coastal areas of southwest Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, the situation is calm.