Climate threats and opportunities in the Horn of Africa: Side-event in the margins of COP 27 - Concept Note (14 November 2022)

Climate Change Impact in the Horn

From flooding in Pakistan to wildfires in Europe, the fallout of a changing climate is indisputable. Despite our efforts, climate emergencies will continue to increase in number and their impact will grow in severity. In Africa alone, Chad, Nigeria and Niger are experiencing significant flooding that has led to a dramatic increase in displacement. These impacts are further exacerbated in areas experiencing conflict and insecurity, but nowhere has the impacts of climate change been as devastating as the extreme drought plaguing the Horn of Africa.

Despite contributing the least to the global climate crisis—accounting for an estimated 0.59% of global greenhouse gas emissions—communities in the Horn of Africa are bearing the brunt of it.

The region has become hotter and drier, and countries in the region report that occurrences of dry spells, seasonal droughts and multi-year droughts are more frequent than in the past, while also highlighting an increase in episodes of torrential rainfall. Right now, communities in the Horn of Africa are facing the immediate threat of starvation, with forecasts indicating that the October-December 2022 rainy season is likely to underperform, marking the fifth consecutive failed season in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

The October-December 2020, March-May 2021, October-December 2021 and March-May 2022 seasons were all marred by below-average rainfall, leaving large swathes of Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya facing the most prolonged drought in recent history, while the March-May 2022 rainy season was the driest on record in the last 70 years.

The 2020-2022 drought has now surpassed the horrific droughts in 2010-2011 and 2016-2017 in both duration and severity and will continue to deepen in the months ahead, with catastrophic consequences.