Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET May 9 – May 15, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 08 May 2013

Heavy, torrential rain fell over many parts of western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern Somalia, Kenya and Uganda.

1) Poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has resulted in deteriorating ground conditions since January. This has negatively impacted crops and livestock throughout many parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia.

2) Little to no rainfall since the second dekad of March has been received across portions of eastern Angola, and western Zambia. Late season moisture deficits indicate an early departure of the southern Africa monsoon in the region and may affect crops planted late in the season.

3) Since the beginning of February, pronounced dry spells and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall have negatively affected parts of the Caprivi Strip region, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

4) Poor March rainfall and deteriorating soil moisture across parts of Malawi, eastern Zambia, southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique is likely to adversely affect crops in the region.

5) After above-average precipitation was received in January, seasonal rainfall has ceased since mid-February leading to significant ground moisture deficits in northern Mozambique.

6) After a month of extremely heavy rainfall across East Africa, a weakening of precipitation is expected during early May. However, heavy rains in past weeks have resulted in localized flooding in southwestern Kenya and southern Uganda. For the next week, the potential for locally torrential rainfall remains high over southwestern Kenya and southern Uganda and is expected to sustain the risk of flooding.

7) Despite an increase in rainfall since mid-April, the delayed onset of seasonal rainfall has led to unfavorable ground conditions for northeastern “Belg” producing areas of Ethiopia.

8) Abundant and above-average rain across upstream and downstream regions of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers has led to elevated water levels and the risk for river inundation across southern/central Somalia during the next week.