Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET May 2 – May 8, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 01 May 2013

1) Poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has resulted in deteriorating ground conditions since January. This has negatively impacted crops and livestock throughout many parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia.

2) Little to no rainfall since the second dekad of March has been received across portions of eastern Angola, and western Zambia. Late season moisture deficits indicate an early departure of the southern Africa monsoon in the region and may affect crops planted late in the season.

3) Since the beginning of February, pronounced dry spells and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall have negatively affected parts of the Caprivi Strip region, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

4) Poor March rainfall and deteriorating soil moisture across parts of Malawi, eastern Zambia, southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique is likely to adversely affect crops in the region.

5) After above-average precipitation was received in January, seasonal rainfall has ceased since mid-February leading to significant ground moisture deficits in northern Mozambique.

6) After a monthly of extremely heavy rainfall across East Africa, a weakening of precipitation is expected during early May. However, the potential for locally torrential rainfall remains over southwestern Kenya and is expected to sustain the risk of flooding.

7) Despite an increase in rainfall since mid-April, the delayed onset of seasonal rainfall has led to unfavorable ground conditions for many “Belg” producing areas of Ethiopia. Low amounts of precipitation are forecast across western Ethiopia during the outlook period.

8) For the second week, heavy rainfall totals are forecast over many pastoral areas of the eastern Ethiopia and Somalia which may trigger localized flooding and downstream inundation during the next seven days.