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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Conducive weather conditions underpin favourable 2025 cereal production prospects
- Maize import requirements expected to rise moderately in 2024/25
- Maize meal prices hit record highs in late 2024
- Drought and high prices of staple foods worsen food insecurity in 2025
Conducive weather conditions underpin favourable 2025 cereal production prospects
Harvesting of the 2025 cereal crops, primarily maize, is expected to start in April. After a slow start of seasonal rains that resulted in plantings activities beginning later that normal at the end of November, rainfall conditions thereafter have been generally favourable for cereal crops, with cumulative rainfall amounts near average through January 2025 and a relatively even temporal distribution since December. As a result, vegetation conditions in cropland areas, based on remote sensing data, remain near the average. Weather forecasts for February to April 2025 suggest a continuation of near-average rainfall amounts, supporting expectations for average to above-average maize yields in 2025.
The government is continuing to support farmers’ access to agricultural inputs, including tractor services, through its Input Subsidy Programme during the 2024/25 cropping season. Over the longer term, the government is also investing in several irrigation schemes to bolster the resilience of the agriculture sector against extreme weather events and to support productivity gains.
Maize import requirements expected to rise moderately in 2024/25
The ElNiño-induced drought in 2024 is estimated to have caused a 25 percent decline in maize production compared to the five-year average, driven large by yield reductions. As a result, maize imports are expected to be above average in the 2024/25 marketing year (May/April). Currently, the monthly import rate in 2024/25 is slightly higher than in the previous marketing year.
The country is entirely reliant on imports to satisfy wheat consumption needs and imports in 2024/25 are anticipated to increase moderately, partly due to lower wholesale prices in South Africa, the country’s main source of cereals, compared to white maize, the other key food staple. The import rate of wheat in 2024/25 is about one third higher than in 2023/24.
Maize meal prices hit record highs in late 2024
Prices of maize meal peaked at a record high in November 2024, reflecting trends in South Africa, where the 2024 drought sharply curbed the domestic harvest and drove up wholesale prices. By December 2024, prices dipped slightly but were still 12 percent higher year on year.
In contrast, the national average retail price of wheat flour was lower year-on-year in December 2024, reflecting a downward price trend in South Africa.
Drought and high prices of staple foods worsen food insecurity in 2025
The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis estimated that 304 000 people are facing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October 2024 and March 2025. This number is about 7 percent more than the assessed food-insecure population in 2023/24.
The deterioration in acute food insecurity is attributed to the impact of the El Nino-induced drought on local food production, which caused income losses and constrained households’ food supply from own production. Additionally, high maize prices are further constraining households’ economic access to food.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .