FEWS Eritrea Food Security Update 10 Dec 2003

Overview

According to the joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) report released on November 27, Eritrea produced 106,000 MT of cereals in 2003, a sharp drop from the mid-season forecast of 207,400 MT of cereals. This final estimate represents only 57 percent of cereal average production and 19 percent of annual consumption requirements. Eritrea will have to import the balance.

The CFSAM report also indicated that kremti rains improved the short-term availability of grazing, feed and drinking water for livestock. Livestock conditions are reportedly good almost everywhere. However, drinking water will become a constraint during the dry season due to scarcity of watering points at strategic positions on the range.

The Government-UN Consolidated Inter-agency Appeal (CAP) was launched on November 28, calling for US$ 147.2 million of humanitarian assistance for Eritrea in 2004, two-thirds of which as food aid. The CAP estimates total cereal aid requirements of 364,000 MT next year. This figure will need to be adjusted in light of the lower cereal production estimate by CFSAM, lower commercial import capacity on the part of the Government, and higher population estimates.

The bahri rains, which normally fall between November and February in the Northern Red Sea Zone and the eastern escarpments, appear to be late and inadequate, with potentially harmful consequences for crops and animals.

Cereal prices sent mixed signals in November. Contrary to the expected price decline during harvest and post-harvest period, white sorghum price increased noticeably in Keren and Mendefera while declining moderately in Asmara. After stabilizing in the last few months sorghum-livestock terms of trade slightly appreciated in November in Asmara.

1. NATIONAL TRENDS

1.1. Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Report Estimates Far Below Average Cereal Production in 2003

The joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) of October 25-November 12 released its final report on November 27. The report indicated that Eritrea produced 106,000 MT of cereals and 2,400 MT of pulses during 2003. This estimate represents a sharp drop from the mid-season forecast of 207,400 MT of cereals, attributed to an early end of rainfall in many areas and late rainfall that damaged standing crops in some areas. In addition to low and erratic rainfall throughout both azmera and kremti seasons, crop production was constrained by shortages of labor and equipment.

Figure 1 puts the downward revision of cereal production into perspective. While cereal production in 2003 is nearly double the poor production in 2002 (54,530 MT), it is only 56.6 percent of average 1992-2002 production (187,209 MT) and 51.1 percent of the midseason estimate (207,420). Figure 1 shows that Eritrea produced only 19.3 percent of its annual consumption needs (549,000 MT), another indicator that the country has a structural deficit in cereal production that will have to be made up by commercial imports and mostly food aid. In addition, due to the inability of farmers to retain seeds where crops failed locally, Eritrea will need 5,600 MT of seeds for planting in 2004, about 35 percent of total needs.

Although FEWS NET participated in the field work phase of the Assessment as an observer, FEWS NET takes issue with several findings of the CFSAM report. For instance, it is not likely that cereal production in Anseba Zone in 2003 (6,795 MT) fell below production in 2002 (7,911 MT), one of the worst years in the past 11 years. As Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) sub-zone technical personnel and farmers told the team in several locations, rainfall crop performance in 2003 had been at least slightly better than the previous year. In addition, total cultivated area for cereals increased by 24 percent in 2003 (45,303 ha) above area in 2003 (36,456 ha). The CFSAM estimate of average cereal yields in 2003, 150 kg per ha, is far below average yields in 2002, 217 kg per ha. Considering these facts, it appears that the CFSAM has underestimated cereal production in Anseba zone -- although a marginal upward adjustment does not change the fundamental conclusion that Eritrea produced far below average this year.

FEWS NET also notes that oil crops, such as sesame, contribute significantly to the overall crop production, especially in Gash-Barka Zone. As mentioned in previous FEWS NET Monthly Reports, this has been a good year for sesame and significant yield improvement is expected compared with production in previous years. According to the data obtained from the MoA in Gash-Barka Zone, around 32,000 ha were planted to sesame in 2003, with an expected production of 9,600 MT, a yield of 300 kg per hectare.

As for livestock, the CFSAM report indicates that kremti rains were very useful for improving the availability of grazing land, feed and drinking water for livestock compared with conditions last year. The condition of livestock has been reported as good almost everywhere. Forage and crop stubble will last several months, but drinking water remains a constraint during the dry season as animals need to walk long distances between scarce watering points on the rangeland. An outbreak of Contagious Bovine Pleuro-Pneumonia (CBPP) was reported and farmers supported by MoA took rapid action to prevent its expansion by slaughtering their cattle.

Lastly, the CFSAM report recommends a number of practical and far-reaching steps to improve conditions and incomes in the crop and livestock sector, such as better farming, resource conservation and animal husbandry practices; better rangeland management and provision of veterinary services; creation of rural financial markets and other market services; and reopening of regional markets with traditional trading partners, such as Ethiopia and Sudan. On balance, FEWS NET believes the CFSAM report is a good document to guide response decisions next year.

1.2. Early Performance of Bahri (November-February) Rains is Poor

The bahri rains, which normally fall between November-February in the Northern Red Sea Zone and the eastern escarpments, are relatively light but extremely very important locally for pasture and crops in an otherwise arid area. These rains appear to be late. Rains have not yet started in the Foro and Sheeb subzones. Except two heavy showers in October (42 mm) and November (79 mm) in Gindae, the performance of the bahri season seems to be very poor as of the end of November. Normally, bahri rains start in October in Gindae sub-zone and in November elsewhere, continuing through February.

Sorghum is grown in spate (mountain run-off) irrigated areas of Foro and Sheeb sub-zones. Planted at the beginning of September, sorghum is now at late vegetative and early grain filling stages. More than 95% of the total ploughed and planted area in the Sheeb spate irrigation area is planted in sorghum. According to MoA in Sheeb sub-zone, of the total cultivated area of 4,915 ha, around 3,616 ha (74%) has been adequately irrigated. FEWS NET has observed wilting of some sorghum plants in late planted and inadequately irrigated fields.

Although crop performance in Sheeb and Foro mainly depends on the number of flash floods and amount of water which flows from the highland areas during the kremti rains (June-September), continuation of the minor bahri rains also contributes greatly to better crop performance. Bahri rains are particularly important for pearl millet, which farmers plant in fields, which were not irrigated adequately during the kremti rains.

Maize is major crop grown in Gindae sub-zone. Unlike crops in Sheeb and Foro, performance of crops in most parts of Gindae depends entirely on the volume and frequency of bahri rains. So far, the bahri rains have been disappointing. Unless they improve soon, crop and pasture growth and performance will be affected negatively. The same holds true in parts of Foro sub-zone where some farmers grow maize solely using bahri rainfall.

Although bahri crops contribute only a small fraction of national cereal production, these crops are very important to local agro-pastoral households to supplement their income from livestock production. The bahri rain is more significant in terms of pasture and grazing enhancement. Herders from the Northern Red Sea Zone take their livestock to the surrounding highlands during the kremti season (June- September) and return home this time of year. In addition, livestock from other zones in the central and southern highlands migrate to the eastern escarpment in the Northern Red Sea Zone to take advantage of better pasture and grazing which is usually available in areas where bahri rains fall.

1.3. Sorghum Prices Increase, Contrary to the Usual Post-harvest Pattern

Prices of sorghum, the main cereal staple, showed a mixed picture on the main markets in November. Compared with prices the previous month, sorghum prices in November increased 13 percent in Keren and 17 percent in Mendefera markets. This increasing price trend goes against expectations of decreasing price trends which normally occur during and immediately after harvest time. The average sorghum price declined 7 percent in Asmera, the more typical pattern in the post-harvest period, although the Asmara sorghum price is still the highest of the three markets (Figure 2). The decline in price is likely due to high flow of the current harvest from the producton sites to Asmara market by grain traders.

The same time last year there was a significant (18 percent) decline in the price of sorghum between October and November in Mendefera. In Asmara and Keren last year, sorghum prices rose between October and November because of the very poor harvest in 2002, among other reasons.

Figure 2 also shows that prices in 2001, when Eritrea produced 219,000 MT of cereals, were considerably lower than current prices. According to International Monetary Fund and CFSAM sources, food price inflation reaches about 20-25 percent annually. Unless wages and salaries increase by at least as much, increasing sorghum prices erode household purchasing power.

Price trends in 2001, 2002, and 2003 in the three selected markets do not show a uniform pattern. Other factors being equal, price reductions are usually expected during the post-harvest months, but this pattern is not confirmed in the three markets shown above. Market analysts should carry out a detailed investigation to identify factors contributing to these unexpected price variations in order to better understand their causes and impacts.

As depicted in Figure 3, after stabilizing in the previous few months, sorghum-livestock terms of trade (ToT) slightly appreciated in Asmara in November. In this instance, the ToT is determined by dividing the price of an animal by the price of grain - that is, what someone sells expressed in terms of what he buys. The ToT increased by 9 and 7 percent for goat and sheep, respectively, the most favourable terms for livestock traders since April. Two factors explain this increase in ToT: As previously shown, the price of sorghum declined by 7 percent between October and November while prices of sheep and goats remained almost the same.

2. FOOD SECURITY STATUS

2.1. Food Aid Deliveries Fall Short of Pledges and Total Needs in 2003

According to the Eritrean Refugee and Relief Commission (ERREC) stock status report of December 3, assuming the arrival of 23,863 MT in November, around 94 percent (270,655 MT) of the total pledged amount of food aid (286,703 MT) had been delivered by the end of November, with another 14,000 MT expected soon. Cereals, mainly wheat, constitute the largest share of the pledges and delivered commodities (87 percent and 87 percent, respectively). Pulses (6 percent, 9 percent) and oil (4 percent, 4 percent) were the second and third important commodities pledged and delivered in 2003, respectively.

The ERREC stock balance as of October 31 was 57,427 MT of food items. Considering the 23,863 MT expected to arrive at the end of November and the 27,769 MT distributed in November, around 53,521 MT were available at the end of November. Assuming a 30,000 MT distribution in December, the closing balance at the end of the year will not be more than 34,430 MT, including the 14,000 MT assumed to be arrive before the end of the year. This volume, representing little more than one month’s needs, is very low for stock management purposes.

2.2. Food Security Outlook looks Bleaker than First Estimated

The Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) and the United Nations officially launched on November 28 a new Consolidated Interagency Appeal (CAP) for US$147.2 million, comprised of US$97.8 million for food needs and US$49.4 million for non-food requirements to continue assisting the government meet humanitarian needs in the country in 2004. According to the CAP document, about half the population - an estimated 1,725 million people - comprising war- and drought-affected people need humanitarian assistance.

In 2003, the Government commercially imported food items purchased from the international market. However, during the time the CAP document was officially released, the government disclosed that it is not in position to import commercially in 2004.

A number of differences exist concerning food aid estimates between the CFSAM report and the CAP document, even though they were released one day apart. The CAP estimated total cereal aid requirements at 364,000 MT in 2004, of which 262,000 MT is to be resourced through food aid and the remaining 102,000 MT through a buffer stock reserve to be set up. To prepare the National Cereal Food Outlook (NCFA) for 2004, the CAP document based its assessment of food aid needs on the production estimates of 207,000 MT by the Interim Crop Assessment Mission conducted in August 2003, rather than the more recent lower estimate of 106,000 MT by the CFSAM report. In addition, the NCFA considered commercial imports of around 60,000 MT of cereals by the Eritrean Grain Board (EGB), which no longer appears feasible. Moreover, the NCFA applied a population figure of 3.4 million for 2004, but, the recent official estimate, according to the CFSAM, was 3.56 in 2003, with an estimated average growth rate of 2.7 percent. Hence, the population will rise to 3.66 million in 2004. It is, therefore, necessary to revise the NCFA based on these changes in planning figures.

FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development and implemented by Chemonics International Inc. E-mail us at yberaki@fews.net or yerga@gemel.com.er. Telephone us in Eritrea at +291-1-18-29-89. Visit the Eritrea Country Center on the FEWS NET website at www.fews.net.