NAIROBI, 22 May 2003 (IRIN) - On
the eve of its 12th independence anniversary -- and its 10th year of formal
independence - Eritrea is confronted with difficult choices. President
Isayas Afewerki, under fire for an increasingly autocratic rule, faces
the difficult task of moving his country out of an apparent impasse.
Ten years ago, Eritrean independence
- gained on 24 May 1991 when the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) marched into Asmara - was formalised in a referendum in which the people voted overwhelmingly (99.9 percent) for their freedom. But emancipation from neighbouring Ethiopia came at a huge cost. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives during the 30-year liberation struggle, and hundreds of thousands more became refugees, mostly in Sudan. The EPLF was faced with a mammoth task of reconstruction and economic revival.
For the next few years, there was peace and Eritreans rallied behind their leaders to work to rebuild their shattered country. The EPLF transformed itself into the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) and plans were made for eventual multipartyism and general elections. Cooperation with now-landlocked Ethiopia was smooth for the first few years, and Ethiopian trade kept the ports of Massawa and Assab busy and profitable.
CRACKDOWN
But then came renewed war with Ethiopia in 1998, sparked by a border skirmish in the remote town of Badme, and years of progress were reversed almost overnight. Resources had to be diverted to the war effort, thousands of people were called up for military service and once again, hundreds of thousands of citizens were displaced or forced to flee across borders.
Although the war was ended by a peace agreement, signed by both sides in December 2000, Asmara has remained jittery and this has led to a tough government policy, which some say amounts to a crackdown on political dissent.
"The war has so deeply scarred Eritrea that it seems no longer able to define itself except in relation to its opposition to Ethiopia," said one political observer.
But the Eritrean government rejects this view. It insists it is acting to preserve its territorial security and to keep its borders safe. To this end, it defends the arrest of 11 prominent politicians and the closure of the private press in 2001 on the grounds of "national security", and denies that people are arrested for expressing their views.
"People are free to write whatever they want, they are free to express their opinions," acting Information Minister Ali Abdu Ahmed told IRIN.
However, human rights organisations have expressed concern about the growing number of detainees in Eritrea's jails, saying that very often they are held incommunicado for long periods of time, without charge and with no recourse to an independent court. According to the US State Department, Eritrea's "poor" human rights record worsened still further last year.
Eritrea was one of the few African countries to publicly express its support for the US-led war on Iraq and observers note the diverging policies of the State Department and the Pentagon towards the tiny, strategically-placed nation.
"The Pentagon is keen to build relations with Eritrea, but the State Department says human rights issues and democratisation should be addressed first," said a regional expert. "The US has been divided over Eritrea ever since the crackdown began in 2001."
"Eritrea has been lobbying very hard to get some US military presence on its territory," he added. "The reasons are both for obvious economic advantages, and for political advantage - if the US commits troops to Eritrea, the military threat from Ethiopia would be dissipated."
PROTECTING NATIONAL INTERESTS
As a small and vulnerable country, surrounded on two sides by giant and hostile neighbours Ethiopia and Sudan, Eritrea says it has to protect its national interests and will not bow to external pressure. Regional observers point to the fiercely independent, "go-it-alone" Eritrean psyche, borne out of a 30-year struggle that was largely unsupported by the international community. In independent Eritrea, officials frequently state their refusal to "play the game".
But the country is facing the worst drought of its short history, and humanitarian workers have warned of "catastrophe" unless there is a marked increase in the tiny amounts of aid that have so far arrived. The Food and Agriculture Organisation said that nearly two-thirds of the country's 3.5 million population are facing severe food shortages.
President Isayas recently accused the international community of using assistance as a "political tool" and described Ethiopia, also suffering from a devastating drought, as the "spoilt child of the west".
"The difference between Eritrea and Ethiopia is that Ethiopia does know how to play the game," one observer said. "They realise they have to make and keep friends in order to maintain support and certainly to keep the money flowing in, despite a lacklustre record of success with their programmes."
Eritrea has always maintained it can rely on the nationalistic pride of its people, and particularly contributions from diaspora Eritreans. But disillusionment is setting in.
"High morale is what drove the EPLF to victory, but morale now appears to be waning," the observer added. "There is progress in the social and economic sphere and tremendous resistance in the political sphere."
"Instead of Eritrea remaking the EPLF, the EPLF remade Eritrea in its image," says academic David Pool, who spent time with the combatants in the 1970s.
In his book on the EPLF, 'From Guerrillas to Government', Pool writes that the "transition from a centralised and tightly organised liberation front is fraught with difficulties, not the least of which is putting aside the components of victory".
"Perceiving threats to national unity has frequently provided the justification for the maintenance of secretive and unaccountable political systems which in their turn generate division," he says.
PROGRESS AND REGRESSION
Pool however also underlines the positive aspects of developments since independence, "particularly in education and the efficient delivery of services -- more remarkable given the legacy of war and poverty".
In an interview with IRIN, he hailed the resilience of the Eritreans and their determination to "insulate themselves from neo-liberalism which can be so detrimental".
Author and academic Dan Connell, who spent many years as a journalist with the EPLF during its liberation struggle, agrees that from 1991-98, there was remarkable social and economic progress. He notes the rapid development of the infrastructure, the construction of health clinics and schools, irrigation projects for the rural community -- a series of measures aimed at pulling the nation together.
"That effort of social justice and economic democracy is one of Eritrea's greatest achievements," Connell told IRIN. "It overcame religious, ethnic and regional differences to give everyone access to basic services and economic opportunities."
But the 1998 war with Ethiopia was disastrous for the fledgling state. The World Bank says the country is facing a huge labour shortage due to military mobilisation, and the impact on the manufacturing sector in particular has been devastating. According to the Bank, a decade of progress has been reversed.
Nevertheless, it says there are many positive signs that Eritrea can regain the momentum lost through years of conflict. It notes in particular the characteristics of self-reliance and determination that sustained the country during the liberation war.
The CIA World Factbook says that even during the 1998-2000 war, Eritrea continued to develop its infrastructure, asphalting new roads, improving its ports, and repairing war damaged roads and bridges.
It warns however that Eritrea's economic future remains mixed. "The cessation of Ethiopian trade, which mainly used Eritrean ports before the war, leaves Eritrea with a large economic hole to fill," the report says. "Eritrea's economic future depends upon its ability to master fundamental social problems like illiteracy, unemployment, and low skills, and to convert the diaspora's money and expertise into economic growth."
Demobilisation is still awaited, as are elections, postponed from December 2001, the introduction of political parties and implementation of the constitution. Thousands of refugees are still awaiting repatriation from Sudan, an operation currently on hold due to the closure of the border between the two countries amid worsening bilateral relations.
The threat of war still hangs in the air with the impending demarcation of the border with Ethiopia, and indications by the latter that it may not accept an independent ruling which mapped out the new line between the countries. Tigrayans living in the now symbolic town of Badme -- currently administered by Ethiopia, but which, according to the independent Boundary Commission, falls in Eritrea -- have vowed to fight, rather than allow the town to be "taken away".
Eritrea insists it will not bend to the "western model of democracy" and will do things its own way, in its own time. But donors are increasingly uneasy about Eritrea's apparent unwillingness to compromise and the country risks slipping further into isolation.
The country's success in cutting across barriers of ethnicity and regionalism gave it a "tremendous amount of space", observers say. "But if that space ceases to exist, it will leave a situation that is ripe for conflict."
OPPOSITION VOICES
The uncertain climate is creating a fertile breeding ground for the government's opponents to make their voices -- and actions -- felt. The authorities blame their enemies, Sudan, Ethiopia and Yemen, for supporting various opposition groups springing up outside the country. The recent murder of a British geologist in western Eritrea - a shocking development in a country renowned for its safety record -- was blamed squarely on the radical opposition Eritrean Islamic Jihad Movement (EIJM), which Asmara says is backed by Sudan. Both the EIJM and Khartoum have denied the accusations.
But the EIJM has admitted responsibility for a series of recent mine blasts in the demilitarised zone along the 1,000 km border between Ethiopia and Eritrea -- a strip of land 25 km wide which falls entirely in Eritrean territory.
Observers note that the EIJM is just one of a number of extremist Islamist movements in the Horn of Africa which are flourishing under the current instability in the region.
"If only Eritrea and Ethiopia could mend their relations, both countries have an interest in cooperating against these movements as part of the war against terrorism," a regional expert pointed out.
Eritrea, split almost evenly between Moslems and Christians, has been a model of peaceful co-existence between the religions. But Eritrea-watchers say cracks are now appearing in the relationship. This, they say, is due to a number of factors -- the impact of the war with Ethiopia, the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Sudan, the growing influence of Islamic opposition movements and resentment in the lowlands of a perceived "colonisation" by Christian highlanders.
"The exclusionary character of post-independence politics provides a basis for the opposition to portray the system as essentially undemocratic," says David Pool, who also warns that the achievements of liberation are beginning to fade among the younger generation.
Analysts say the greatest threat to the government probably comes from the "informal opposition" within the country. Many of the opposition movements outside the country are so associated with either Sudan or Ethiopia that they have little credibility.
PARTY PROBLEMS
Rifts are also appearing within the ruling PFDJ, the only permitted party, as the president "seeks to figure out who is loyal and who isn't". "He is seeking a purification that is impossible," one observer said.
Analysts note that the current problems within the PFDJ did not just spring up overnight -- there had already been tensions within the liberation front going back to the 1980s.
And as far back as the early 1970s, there was a crisis within the EPLF when a dissident wing began challenging the front in general, and Isayas Afewerki in particular. The group, known as the menka -- the Tigrinya word for bat because its members met at night -- was unhappy over a perceived lack of democracy within the front. Some of the menka leaders were later executed.
After independence, while much was made of public participation in issues such as defining the constitution and structuring the state and political movement, there was a consolidation of power within the president's office. The 1998 war with Ethiopia served to "accelerate the contraction of power", one regional observer said.
"But if Isayas had gone ahead with elections, he could have won with 99 percent of the vote," the observer added. "He still could."
UNIFYING A DIVERSE NATION
Because of the EPLF's social and political education policy, ordinary Eritreans had a fairly sophisticated grasp of the dangers of ethnicity and regionalism, gender issues, and so on, and could make informed choices.
"There was a foundation on which to build a democratic society, unlike most countries in Africa," says Dan Connell.
"What's needed now is for the government to pardon the detainees, implement the constitution and get on with the democratisation process," he told IRIN.
"This is a movement that has made remarkable achievements in unifying a diverse nation. It would be a tragedy if they fail to institutionalise this for future generations."
[ENDS]
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