Attachments
Joint FAO/WFP Report
PR 02/102e
ROME, 3 October 2002 - A prolonged drought has seriously affected agricultural and livestock production in Eritrea this year - threatening the lives of more than a million people, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) said in a joint report issued this week.
The two Rome-based agencies say that rainfall has been poor since October 2001 with almost total failure of the March-June azmera rains and the late onset of June-September kremti rains , threatening the food security situationof thousands of farmers and pastoralists who make up most of Eritrea's working population.
The cereal harvest - forecast at 74 000 tonnes - is expected to be 60 percent below the average of the last ten years. It will cover only about 15 percent of Eritrea's food requirement instead of the average 40-50 percent. The agencies warned that international assistance will be needed to cover a shortfall of 283 000 tonnes, after taking into account anticipated foreign aid and commercial imports.
The FAO/WFP report is based on a two-week joint crop and food supply assessment mission conducted in late August, a month after the Eritrean Government declared a national drought emergency.
The report says that due to pervasive poverty, all of Eritrea is susceptible to food insecurity. However, the drought-prone regions of Northern Red Sea, Southern Red Sea and many parts of Anseba are particularly vulnerable.
The current poor agricultural season could not have come at a worse time. Eritrea is just recovering from a devastating border war with neighbouring Ethiopia. A large number of people, including farmers, are still displaced and thousands of soldiers are yet to be demobilised. Furthermore, the continuing resettlement of Eritrean refugees returning from Sudan is an extra strain on the country's resources.
The border conflict with Ethiopia has also rendered unusable an estimated 12 000 hectares in Debub and most of the sub-region of Lalai Gash in Gash Barka because of unexploded landmines. Conscription to military service has also depleted the agricultural workforce in many areas. This has led to an increasing number of households being headed by women.
Besides agriculture, most Eritreans earn a living through casual work. However, due to national conscription, there is an absence of younger men engaged in normal productive activities, such as ploughing and weeding, and this is exacerbating food insecurity at the household level.
Since the conflict with Ethiopia (1998-2000), war-affected populations displaced within Gash Barka and Debub Regions, as well as some of the Eritreans deported from Ethiopia, have had limited, or no means of accessing food, and are extremely vulnerable.
FAO and WFP are particularly concerned for the more than one million most vulnerable people (about a third of the country's 3.3 million inhabitants) who will require 140 000 tons of food in 2003. However, the report adds: "other populations may also need food assistance before the end of 2003, depending on cereal, water and pasture availability and cereal prices later in the year." The agencies say emergency food aid will be required at least until the harvest at the end of next year, in order to prevent loss of human life, destitution, liquidation of minimal productive assets and distress migration.
Pastoralists have also been seriously affected. The number of livestock, mainly goats, sheep and cattle, has diminished in some districts by up to 20 percent from their 2001 levels. There is a lack of pasture for grazing in most areas of the country.
The agencies add that emergency support to crop and livestock production is also urgently needed to revive production capacity for next year. This support should include the distribution of seeds for cereal production, the provision of supplementary feed and vaccines for cattle to cover for possible outbreaks of stress-induced diseases, with training for vaccinators.
The report says that while emergency food aid needs in Eritrea during 2003 will be extensive, it should be noted that in many areas, there is a risk of people developing an over-reliance on food aid with the expectation that this assistance will be provided on a regular basis.
The agencies say: "this is proving destructive to some traditional coping strategies, and creating a vicious cycle that can lead to dependency. Therefore, it is critical that emergency food aid be provided only to those who cannot survive or will become destitute without it". But the report also notes that domestic production in Eritrea, even in good years, is insufficient to meet demand, and the country relies heavily on food imports, including aid.
FAO is the lead agency in the United Nations system for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and rural development. Since it was founded in 1945, FAO has worked to alleviate poverty and hunger by promoting agricultural development and the pursuit of food security.
WFP is the United Nations' front-line agency in the fight against global hunger. In 2001, WFP fed more than 77 million people in 82 countries including most of the world's refugees and internally displaced people.
WFP Global School Feeding Campaign -- As the largest provider of nutritious meals to poor school children, WFP has launched a global campaign aimed at ensuring the world's 300 million undernourished children are educated.
For further information please contact:
FAO:
John Riddle, FAO Media Relations Officer, tel: 0039 5705 3259
WFP:
Trevor Rowe, WFP Chief Spokesperson, Tel. +39-06-65132602
Caroline Hurford, Public Affairs Officer, Tel. +39-06-65132330
You can also access this Special report on the Internet on http://www.fao.org/giews/ Or http://www.wfp.org/index.asp?section=2
Enquiries should be directed to:
FAO Media-Office (Media-Office@fao.org)
John Riddle, 0039-06-5705 3259, John.Riddle@FAO.Org
Liliane Kambirigi, 0039-06-5705 3223, Liliane.Kambirigi@FAO.Org
Erwin Northoff, 0039-06-5705 3105; e-mail: Erwin.Northoff@FAO.Org
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Mission Highlights
Prolonged drought conditions have seriously affected agricultural and livestock production in 2002.
Azmera rains (March-June), important for land preparation and replenishment of pastures, in key agricultural areas almost totally failed and the main Kremti rains (June-September) were late by more than four weeks.
As a result, cereal production in 2002 is forecast at about 74 000 tonnes, the lowest level since the country's independence in 1993.
Pastoralists were seriously affected by the delayed rains, as reports indicated that livestock in some sub-regions may have been reduced by up to 20 percent from their 2001 levels between March and June 2002.
The cereal import requirement for 2003 is estimated at 413 000 tonnes of which about 80 000 tonnes are anticipated to be imported commercially.
With 50 000 tonnes of food aid expected in the country by the end of 2002, the uncovered gap is estimated at 283 000 tonnes, but most of this could be covered through a combination of informal grain imports, current WFP food aid programmes and bilateral donations.
Of immediate concern are some 1.04 million of the most vulnerable people who will require 140 000 tonnes of food aid in 2003.
Emergency support to crop and livestock production is urgently needed to revive production capacity for next year.
1. OVERVIEW
Following the declaration by the Government of Eritrea of a national drought emergency, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Eritrea from 19 August to 1 September 2002 to assess the effect of the drought on food and livestock production, estimate the expected cereal import requirements, including food aid needs and identify emergency support for the livestock sector.
Prior to the arrival of the Mission, a preliminary assessment of the country's crop and livestock situation had been carried out by a Technical Task Force drawn from Government , resident UN missions and NGOs. The mission, working closely with the Ministry of Agriculture, reviewed the latest releases and reports from the Government, UN and bilateral agencies working in the country and visited all regions except Southern Red Sea. Discussions were held with farmers, traders and key informants in relevant ministries and field inspections of the state of crops and livestock were made.
The Mission found that rainfall, the major source of water for food production, had been very poor since October 2001. The total failure of the secondary azmera season rains in major agricultural areas has seriously affected land preparation and the replenishment of pastures. The main kremti season rains arrived late over most of the country, delaying planting by several weeks. At the end of August, the forecast for the rains continuing to the end of September was not optimistic and lower than the currently projected poor cereal crop production cannot be ruled out. An early cessation of the rains could also compromise the important chickpea crop which is normally planted in early September.
The current poor agricultural season could not have come at a worse time. The country has just started the recovery from a devastating border war with neighbouring Ethiopia. A large number of people, including farmers, are still displaced and thousands of soldiers are yet to be demobilised. Furthermore, the resettlement of Eritrean refugees that continue to return from Sudan is a further strain on the country's resources.
Against this adverse backdrop, the Mission forecasts a cereal harvest of a mere 74 000 tonnes, nearly 60 percent below the average of the last 10 years. This will be sufficient to cover about 15 percent of the food requirement instead of an average of about 40 to 50 percent.
The poor rains have also had a serious impact on the country's livestock. Many areas were short of fodder from about March till mid-August, and drinking water was scarce. The situation began to improve with the eventual arrival of the rains, but, by then, drought-related livestock deaths had already been reported in several parts of the country. The poor condition of oxen at the time of land preparation imposed further limitations on the area cropped.
The cereal import requirement for the marketing year 2003 (January/December) is estimated at 413 000 tonnes. Reflecting the serious economic difficulties facing the country, only 20 percent of the requirement is anticipated to be covered commercially. With 50 000 tonnes of food aid expected by the end of 2002, the uncovered deficit, for which international assistance is required, is estimated at 283 000 tonnes.
Already some 1.04 million crop dependent vulnerable people will require emergency food assistance of about 140 000 tonnes. However, it is anticipated that other populations may also need food assistance before the end of 2003, depending on cereal, water and pasture availability and cereal prices later in the year.
To revive production capacity for next year, emergency support to the agriculture sector should include the distribution of seeds for cereal production next year; the provision of supplementary feed and vaccines to cover possible outbreaks of stress-induced diseases, with training for vaccinators.
2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING
2.1 The economy
Eritrea is a low income food-deficit country, with a per capita GDP of about US$ 180 per annum. At independence in 1993, the country had a low industrial and agricultural base, severely damaged infrastructure and extremely poor health and educational facilities, even in comparison with other developing countries.
After six years of steady improvement in Eritrea's economy, a border dispute with neighbouring Ethiopia led to a devastating armed conflict from 1998 to 2000. UN-sponsored border negotiations started at the end of 2000, but until now the border remains closed, patrolled by UN troops. Despite a recent upturn in exports to Sudan, the border closure has severely curtailed Eritrea's foreign trade since Ethiopia was its most important trading partner. The main export items are salt, semi-processed leather goods, flowers, livestock and textiles.
Furthermore, as a consequence of the war more than 60 000 displaced people still live in temporary camps in the country. Most of these are internally displaced families that moved away from the border area at the time of the conflict, but the total also includes a substantial number of Eritreans who were living inside Ethiopia when hostilities broke out. In addition, at the beginning of July 2002 about 50 000 Eritrean refugees were reported to have returned from Sudan with more than 100 000 still awaiting repatriation. A financial package of US$ 288 million was secured from the World Bank in December 2000 for Eritrea's Emergency Recovery Programme, which aims to revitalise war-damaged infrastructure and development facilities, promote human welfare and support the balance of payments over a two-year period from January 2001 to December 2002. The main contributors are the World Bank (US$ 90m), Italy (US$ 59m), and the EU (US$ 50m). In 2000 Eritrea's external debt was US$ 298million equivalent to 44.8 percent of gross national income (GNI).
The Government has returned to its policy of promoting economic growth through various market and private sector initiatives, with the objectives of raising incomes, generating employment and developing trade. However, as a consequence of the border war and national service, the productive workforce is effectively reduced.
2.2 The agricultural sector
Although agriculture is a vital sector, in that it employs the vast majority of the population, its contribution to GDP is only 16 per cent. Domestic production, even in good years, is insufficient to meet demand, and the country relies heavily on food imports, including aid.
There are about 3.2 million hectares of arable land in Eritrea, of which less than 15 percent is normally cultivated. More than 95 percent of the cultivated area, of between 300 000 and 500 000 hectares, is rainfed, depending on rains that are highly variable in terms of quantity and distribution, both temporally and geographically. There are three distinct rainy seasons in Eritrea: October to February in the eastern lowlands (winter or bahri rains); March to May in the highlands (spring or azmera rains); and June to September over the whole country apart from the coastal plain (summer or kremti rains). The kremti rains are by far the most important for national production. Normally, rainfall varies between 400 and 600 mm per year in the highlands and between 200 and 300 mm per year in the western lowlands; coastal rainfall ranges from zero to 300 mm. Rainfall patterns in the western lowlands and central highlands are broadly similar, with most of the rainfall concentrated in July and August during the kremti season.
Crop production is predominantly cereal-based, with barley, wheat1 and teff grown in the highlands, and sorghum and millet grown at lower altitudes; some maize is also produced at intermediate altitudes. Limited areas of chickpeas and beans are grown, mainly in the central highlands, while in the south of Gash Barka, sesame is locally important.
For a semi-arid country, Eritrea's irrigation resources are not highly developed. In a good year, only about 21 000 hectares may be irrigated, but since irrigation is very largely dependent on surface water, the productive area in any year closely reflects the amount of rainfall received in the highlands. The country has no perennial rivers or streams, and only about 2 000 hectares (less than 10 per cent of the country's irrigable area) is under irrigation from boreholes; knowledge of groundwater resources is limited. The largest irrigated areas (totalling about 18 000 hectares in a year of good rainfall in the highlands) are in the coastal lowlands, where sorghum and millet are grown under spate irrigation. There are some microdams in the highlands, which make a small but locally important contribution to crop production (typically about 200 hectares), but these too are totally dependent on rainfall.
Eritrea's agricultural productivity continues to be very low as a result of the country's fragile rainfall regime, its often poor and shallow soils, the use of unsophisticated and labour-intensive cultivation methods, and limited use of agricultural inputs. The border conflict with Ethiopia has also rendered unusable an estimated 12 000 hectares in Debub and most of the sub-region of Lalai Gash in Gash Barka because of unexploded landmines. Conscription to national service has also depleted the agricultural workforce in many areas.
Livestock production is an extremely important sector of the rural economy, especially in the more arid areas of the country. Although the largest herds are in the lowlands, the overall herding pattern is characterised by seasonal movement, both within the lowlands and between the lowlands and the highlands, in search of grazing. The principal animals are sheep and goats, followed by cattle, camels, donkeys and horses. On average, rural households have between three and five sheep and/or goats. Apart from work oxen, which are often put to graze in areas specially reserved for them, most livestock are raised on an extensive system that relies on natural pasture and crop residues. As a result, there is a marked annual fluctuation in stock condition which reflects the availability of fodder. Livestock numbers are said to have increased in the years immediately after independence, then fallen during the two years of conflict with Ethiopia. Since then, numbers are thought to have risen again. Pastoralists tend to over-stock, despite the frequent shortages of fodder and water, as they usually put more store by numbers than by condition; they are often loath to sell off stock even when times are hard. The border conflict with Ethiopia has largely halted the movement of livestock both to traditional grazing lands across the border and to grazing areas within Eritrean territory that are still mined; it has also closed important livestock trade routes.
In addition to smallholding agriculture, the Government also allocates land concessions to investors to enable crop production over relatively large areas. Concessions vary in size depending on location and water availability (rainfed or irrigated) as well as on crops. Those near seasonal river beds are normally between 10 and 30 hectares and produce vegetables (onions, okra, carrots, etc.) and fruits (bananas, oranges etc.), whilst those in arid or semi-arid areas can be as large as 400 hectares and are used primarily for cereals or oilseed crops. The contribution of concession agriculture to the country's food economy, however, is not significant, and yields are often mediocre.
3. FACTORS AFFECTING FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2002
3.1 Rainfall
The current agricultural season started poorly with widespread failure, for the fourth year in succession, of the bahri rains along the north-eastern escarpment. These rains are normally expected between November and March and are especially important for Northern Red Sea Region.
This was followed by generally unsatisfactory azmera rains; these are light rains that usually fall between March and May, but they are important for land preparation in the highlands. Only the southern part of Debub Region received an average amount of precipitation during this season, while elsewhere, in northern Debub, Maekel and southern Anseba, the azmera rains were either insignificant or non-existent. As a result, land preparation was widely postponed and in those areas that did receive some azmera rains, such as around Adi Keih and Dekemhare, extensive re-planting was often involved, following the emergence and subsequent desiccation of seedlings.
Figure 1: Eritrea Monthly Rainfall Average in 2002 compared with long-term average
The kremti rains, which are expected to fall from June to September over the highlands and western lowlands, arrived between four and six weeks late in most highland areas. Beneficial showers only began from the third dekad of July, and in some areas did not arrive until mid-August. June is the optimum time for planting long-cycle cereal crops in the highlands, so this delay has very serious implications for both planted area and yield expectation. The overall result of this year's rainfall pattern has been a huge reduction of the area under long-cycle sorghum varieties, which would normally have been planted in June. Barley and wheat in the highlands, which should have been at the grain-filling stage by the end of August had not even headed, with some plantings no further than the three-leaf stage of development. In some parts of Gash Barka Region, above-average rainfall was received after a slow and late start of the kremti rains.
Late and inadequate rains in the highlands have also led to significant reductions in the area under spate irrigation along the coastal strip as a result of the greatly reduced run-off.
3.2 Area planted
The area planted this year in Eritrea was greatly reduced as a result of the poor and late rainfall. The productive area for cereals is expected, at most, to be only about 40 per cent of the average (for the previous ten years cultivated area under cereals averaged at about 360 000 hectares). All regions have suffered in relative terms but the drop in Gash Barka and Debub Regions, known as the bread basket regions, constitutes the biggest loss in absolute terms. Estimated harvestable cereal crop areas by region and nationally are given in Table 1.
3.3 Means of production and inputs
Farm power
The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) is currently in the process of selling off its tractors and other field equipment which it used to hire out to farmers. For use of the remaining tractors, the MOA charges 94 Nakfa2/hr (one hour is generally considered sufficient to plough 0.5 hectares). Commercial hire is consistently more expensive, ranging from about 120 to more than 200 Nakfa/hr. Such high prices are too high for small farmers and often result in under-utilisation of both arable areas and existing farm power.
Labour
The current rate of conscription to national service has had a significant negative impact on the availability of agricultural labour in many parts of the country. Eritrea has a very high incidence of female-headed households, which are often dependent on hired labour to cultivate their land on a share-cropping basis. This is further enforced by the traditional disapproval of a woman operating a plough, especially in the highlands.
Irrigation
There are about 200 micro-dams in the highlands, but only 30 or so are used for irrigation; the others are used as sources of domestic water use for people and livestock. This year they started to fill late, causing delayed planting and prolonged water stress among livestock.
The area under spate irrigation is expected to reach less than a quarter of its potential this year as a result of the late arrival of the kremti rains in the highlands.
The Technical Task Force carried out a sample survey of well depths at the beginning of August and found that water levels were generally below those expected at that time of year.
Seed
Most farmers use seed saved from the previous season's harvest, with the concomitant low yields expected from this practice, resulting from genetic deterioration and contamination by weed species. Very little improved or cleaned seed is used. The country has two small seed-processing facilities, one at Halhale and the other at Tessaniye; this year, 5 tonnes of wheat and barley seed were distributed to farmers from Halhale. A serious shortage of seed is anticipated for next year as a result of this year's expected poor harvest.
Fertilizers
Fertilizer use is higher in the highlands than it is in the western lowlands, where farmers believe their soils to be of high native fertility. With the late arrival of the rains and the overall reduction in cropped area this year, fertilizer use is thought to be well below average, with many farmers considering it to be a risky investment.
3.4 Pests and diseases
Pests
The incidence of crop pests this year has, so far, been normal. There were localised outbreaks of armyworm in Debub and Anseba, where 2 500 hectares and 550 hectares respectively were affected. Damage, however, was limited, and the outbreaks were brought under control. Other pests occurring this year included stalkborer, grasshoppers and the chisel beetle which attacks sorghum grain in the standing crop. However, the relatively low incidence of these pests this year may be largely attributable to the relative absence of crops. There is, later in the year, always the possibility of desert locust swarms.
Diseases
Crop diseases have not presented any problems this year, largely because of the unusually dry conditions that persisted up to August.
Weeds
Striga is a perennial problem in Eritrea, but this year, with the greatly reduced area under sorghum, it is not much in evidence. Other weeds are locally troublesome where, because of the late arrival of the rains, the crop has not yet developed a sufficient canopy to compete successfully with them.
3.5 Cereal yield
Assuming normal September rains, cereal yields from areas actually harvested are expected to be similar to the average (main factor in low production this year will be the reduced area). In some areas, including, for example, parts of Debub and the spate irrigation schemes, it is expected that yields may be above average since farmers will be able to give more attention to their reduced areas of cultivation. This, however, may change radically if the rains stop earlier.