Attachments
Key Messages
- From March to September 2026, atypically early depletion of household food stocks, increased market reliance, and above-average staple food prices are driving widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across El Salvador. An increasing share of poor households, particularly in the Eastern Dry Corridor, is expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the peak of the lean season. In March, many smallholder farmers who saw below-average bean production in 2025 have already exhausted their food stocks. High staple food prices are limiting purchasing power, and the use of unsustainable coping strategies is most likely among land‑poor, labor‑dependent households in the Eastern Dry Corridor. Continued erratic and below-average rainfall is expected to delay the primera season. Forecasted El Niño conditions heighten risks of below‑average rainfall, high temperatures, and an intensified canícula, further constraining household recovery.
- Food access for poor households is expected to deteriorate through the lean season. In March, the end of staple food and cash crop harvests triggers a seasonal decline in agricultural labor for poor rural households, reducing household income just as households are more market dependent. Despite expected increased remittances, according to the Banco Central de Reserva (BCR), and relatively stable non-agricultural income, these inflows are insufficient to fully offset income losses for non‑recipient households.
- Staple food markets remain generally well supplied, supported by average national level maize production and above-average red bean imports. Prices declined seasonally in early 2026 and remained stable in February. Compared to last year, wholesale red bean and rice prices are relatively stable but remain above the five-year average, due to persistently below-average domestic production. However, wholesale maize prices remain high year-on-year, around 24 percent above last year (in the Gerardo Barrios reference market) and approximately 16 percent above the five-year average, sustaining pressure on household purchasing power.
- Heightened volatility in global markets related to the conflict in the Middle East is likely to increase fertilizer prices in the medium term. Fertilizer is currently broadly available through commercial suppliers and government‑subsidized fertilizer sales and distribution centers. In addition, around 500,000 smallholder farmers use the Bono Agrícola voucher, worth 75 USD, to access fertilizers, seeds and pesticides. Despite adequate supply, price transmission and speculation are likely to increase prices of agricultural inputs, with smallholder farmers procuring inputs later in the primera season and/or at the outset of the postrera. Additionally,diesel prices increased by approximately 5–9 percent in March compared to February and are expected to rise further due to import dependence, which may gradually increase transportation and production costs.