Attachments
Below-average production and labor demand negatively affecting parts of Honduras and El Salvador
KEY MESSAGES
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the Honduran Dry Corridor and the coffee-producing areas of central and eastern Honduras and western El Salvador through January. In these areas, smallholder farmers face below-average maize and bean production while households that rely on income from agricultural labor face reduced demand for labor on coffee farms. Many of these households have already accumulated debt and lost productive assets due to previous shocks.
• For the postrera season, national harvests are expected to be near average. However, localized excess moisture during the August to November rainy season may cause some bean crop losses – the season’s main crop –due to this crop’s vulnerability to fungal diseases.
• Since most COVID-19-related restrictions have been lifted, cash crop labor demand will likely be higher than 2020, improving poor households’ income. In Honduras, however, 2021/2022 coffee production is expected to be below-average due to this year’s irregular rainfall and the carryover effects from past shocks, such as Eta and Iota.
• Multiple waves of COVID-19 are expected in the region, as new variants appear, and vaccination progress continues unevenly. Despite this, national governments are not likely to implement more stringent COVID-19-related restrictions throughout this outlook period. This is expected to continue to permit a gradual economic recovery and improvement in household incomes, particularly for those most impacted by restrictions, such as households reliant on tourism, commerce, services, or informal employment.