Most of the poorest households in rural areas in the three countries of the region will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the analysis period. There will be a seasonal improvement in food security from October 2024 to February 2025 with the staple grain harvests of the postrera and apante cycles and increased labor demand during cash crop harvests. These conditions will gradually deteriorate as of March, when the annual lean season begins. The population in need (PIN) accounts for between 500,000 and 749,999 people in Honduras, and between 100,000 and 249,999 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua, especially as of March 2025, when employment options decline seasonally and household food stocks start to decline.
Households whose subsistence crops were affected by pest infestations/diseases and by excess rainfall will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the analysis period. The steep decline in subsistence production means that these households were unable to replenish their food reserves, forcing them to rely extensively on food purchases, which continues to put pressure on household financial resources.
The poorest households in urban areas of the region will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from October 2024 to May 2025 due to the persistence of high food prices which limit access to food for households with irregular and low incomes. However, a slight improvement is expected at the end of November and December 2024, and in April 2025, due to a seasonal increase in commercial and tourist activities, which improves the income of households whose livelihoods depend on these sectors.
