Anticipatory Action: El Salvador 2026 Activation

Getting ahead of drought in the Dry Corridor

Humanitarian partners FAO, PAHO, UNICEF and WFP developed this anticipatory action framework for drought in El Salvador together with the Government and with support from OCHA. El Salvador is the only country in the Dry Corridor with a government-led Special Commission for the Development of Early Warning Systems and Anticipatory Actions — established in 2025 and led by the General Directorate of Civil Protection — making anticipatory action a nationally owned priority. The framework, approved in 2024 by the Emergency Relief Coordinator and renewed for 2026–2027, targets the western departments of Ahuachapán and Santa Ana, identified as the highest-risk areas for drought based on climate analysis, and aims to protect up to 20,000 people through coordinated, cross-sector anticipatory actions triggered as soon as forecasts reach the activation threshold.

The Trigger Mechanism

The mechanism has two monitoring windows — Window A (Primera season) and Window B (Postrera season) — based on national-level seasonal rainfall forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5). OCHA's Center for Humanitarian Data monitors trigger status and issues automated monthly updates on the 5th of each month. Both windows are calibrated to a combined annual return period of 1 in 3 years (1 in 2.92). Notably, Window B uses a shorter monitoring window of just two months — August and September.