Attachments
1 Observed impacts in the region to date
In November 2023, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) conducted an early assessment of the then expected economic and human impact of the war on the State of Palestine. The present policy brief complements that assessment by examining the likely effects of the Gaza war on neighbours of the State of Palestine, focusing primarily on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon for various reasons, including their proximity, exposure and data availability. If these effects materialize, they will add to pre-existing vulnerabilities in these countries, which have yet to fully recover from the effects of recent shocks.
A. Impact of the Gaza war on people’s lives
The Gaza war has entered its third month in December 2023. The Hamas attack in Israel on 7 October 2023 resulted in about 1,200 deaths and 240 hostages. Since then, the total number of fatalities in Gaza had reached 18,787 by 14 December 2023, including 5,153 women and 7,729 children, 135 UNRWA staff members, at least 300 health workers and 89 journalists. This translates into an average of about 272 Gazans killed daily since the start of the war. Moreover, many people, expected to be mostly children and women, are reported missing, assumed trapped under the rubble. By 14 December 2023, the number of injured had reached 50,589,6 corresponding to a daily average of 738. As at 16 December 2023, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs)7 stood at 1.9 million (about 85 per cent of the population), with increasing movement of unaccompanied children and separated families. The number of IDPs will increase further if the hostilities continue, considering the evacuation orders issued after 1 December 2023 for a large area east of Khan Younis.
At least 60 per cent of Gaza’s housing units are reportedly destroyed or damaged, in addition to 352 educational and 20 water and sanitation facilities. Only 14 of 36 hospitals remain partially functional.
Food security concerns are high, especially in the north where there is also no access to clean water. In total, 4,336 trucks with humanitarian aid, excluding fuel, have entered Gaza since 21 October 2023, compared with a daily average of 500 trucks of commercial and humanitarian commodities before the war started.As a result, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reported that the price of food and beverages had increased by an average of 10 per cent in October 2023, including mineral water by 100 per cent, wheat flour by 65 per cent and vegetables by 32 per cent across the State of Palestine.
In addition to food and water, there is a critical shortage of medicine and medical supplies, putting more than a thousand patients at high risk of kidney failure, and leaving over 2,00014 cancer patients without proper health care. Since the start of the war, 180 women are giving birth daily in dangerous conditions. Moreover, an estimated 15 per cent of new births have had complications, requiring basic or comprehensive obstetric care. Since 11 October 2023, Gaza has been experiencing an electricity blackout, after the Israeli authorities cut off the power supply. The only power plant in Gaza has stopped working owing to a lack of fuel,17 which, while allowed to enter Gaza in small quantities since 18 November 2023, is being severely rationed. A shutdown of telecommunication and Internet services started on 14 December 2023 and continued as at 17 December 2023, constraining the information obtained on the humanitarian situation.
A brief humanitarian pause agreed by Israel and Hamas entered into force on 24 November 2023, and was extended for seven days before a resumption of hostilities on 1 December 2023. The humanitarian pause included the gradual exchange of hostages and detainees, and allowed the scale-up of aid deliveries into Gaza. However, as stressed by the Secretary-General of the United Nations on 29 November 2023, the level of aid remains completely inadequate to meet people’s needs.
In the West Bank, the situation has also worsened. The current year has been the deadliest for Palestinians in the West Bank since the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) began recording casualties in 2005, with the past two-month toll representing more than half of all Palestinians killed in the West Bank since the beginning of 2023. Since 7 October 2023, reportedly 278 Palestinians, including 70 children, have been killed by Israeli forces or settlers, and 3,607 have been injured. Moreover, at least 1,950 people have been displaced as a result of settler violence, access restrictions, and demolitions, among other factors.
The socioeconomic consequences for the occupied Palestinian territory are severe. According to ESCWA and UNDP estimates,22 after two months of war, the economic loss in the State of Palestine is estimated to have reached about 8.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) or $1.7 billion. This may increase to about 12.2 per cent of GDP, or $2.5 billion, by the end of the third month. Moreover, preliminary estimates by PCBS indicate that the production of the economic sector in the West Bank in October 2023 lost about 37 per cent of its production compared with the usual monthly production, with an estimated loss of about $500 million permonth, whereas Gaza lost 84 per cent of its usual monthly production, equivalent to $200 million, which will in turn negatively affect general revenues in the occupied Palestinian territory.