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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Above‑normal rainy season disrupted agricultural activity
- Despite heavy rains and floods, plantings of 2025 maize and paddy crops anticipated at above‑average level
- Rising import requirements for cereals in 2024/25
- Prices of maize 30 percent higher year‑on‑year as of March 2025
Above‑normal rainy season disrupted agricultural activity
Since January 2025, above‑average rainfall amounts have caused severe floodings and landslides in western regions, damaging dwellings, infrastructures and livelihoods . Agricultural activities have been severely hampered and losses are reported for several crops. On 13 March, a landslide caused the rupture of the Trans‑Ecuadorian Oil Pipeline System (SOTE) in the Esmeralda Province, generating a major oil spillover that contaminated three rivers, hindering the access to drinking water and generating a health crisis. A red alert status was declared in six provinces and about 113 000 people are estimated to have been affected by the emergency . The contamination of irrigation water and the damages to farming facilities contributed to worsen ecological and humanitarian conditions, negatively affecting agriculture, fishing and livestock.
Despite heavy rains and floods, plantings of 2025 maize and paddy crops anticipated at above‑average level
The 2025 main season maize crop is currently at a late‑development stage and harvesting operations are expected to start in May. Planted area, concentrated by about 75 percent in the coastal regions of Manabí, Los Ríos and Guayas, is estimated at an above‑average level. High domestic demand for maize by the poultry sector and limited supply from the 2024 drought‑stricken harvest exerted an upward pressure on prices, that were higher year-on-year from December 2024 to February 2025, encouraging plantings. Lower year‑on‑year prices of the main fertilizers also contributed to the sowing expansion. Crop losses caused by heavy rainfall amounts and the high incidence of floods since the beginning of the year were more than offset by the large extension of plantings and production is anticipated to be above average.
Plantings of the 2025 main paddy crop concluded in March, with a one‑month delay due to dry weather conditions at the end of 2024 which caused severe soil moisture deficits in key producing coastal regions. In the first quarter of 2025, paddy crops were affected by heavy precipitations, floods and landslides which damaged seedlings and curbed crop yields in the key‑producing Guayas and Los Ríos regions, where about 90 percent of total paddy production is concentrated. Production of the 2025 main season crops is forecast to remain at above-average levels, similar to the 2024 output, mainly due to large plantings that more than compensated localized crop losses.
Aggregate 2024 maize production is estimated at below‑average levels for the second consecutive year, due to low plantings and unfavourable weather conditions. Prolonged dry spells in the second and the third quarter of the year in key producing coastal areas hampered the development of the 2024 main and the minor season crops, curtailing yields. In response, the government provided indemnity-based insurance coverage through the Proyecto Campo Seguro to cover crop losses reported by small and medium farm holdings.
Rising import requirements for cereals in 2024/25
Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at 1.82 million tonnes, about 15 percent above average. High import requirements mainly reflect growing domestic demand for wheat for human consumption and for feed use, especially by shrimp and poultry farming. Maize imports are also forecast to increase, following the 2024 below‑average harvest.
Prices of maize about 30 percent higher year‑on‑year as of March 2025
Prices of maize soared in February 2025, driven by high export prices in Argentina, the main exporting partner. In March, despite a month‑on‑month decline, maize prices were about 30 percent above their year‑earlier levels, reflecting limited availability from 2024 drought‑stricken outturn.
High prices of maize in 2024 had a negative impact on the poultry sector, production of which declined by about 5 percent compared to the previous year , rising poultry domestic prices.
Prices of wheat flour remained generally stable in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting an adequate supply due to high year‑on‑year import volumes. Wholesale prices of rice were nearly unchanged from October 2024 to March 2025, in line with the large domestic availability following the above‑average 2024 output.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .