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Overview
The 24 provinces of the country were analysed, with an estimated population of 18 million inhabitants according to the population projections of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) for 2024, of which 64 percent is urban and 36 percent is rural. During the period June to August 2024, at least 2.6 million people (14 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis or higher), thus requiring urgent actions with response objectives aimed at protecting livelihoods and reducing food consumption gaps. Of these people, at least 2.4 million are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and around 197,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) across the country. Of the 24 areas analysed (all provinces of the country), two were classified in Phase 3: Esmeraldas and Pastaza; 20 provinces were classified in Phase 2 (Stressed) and two in Phase 1 (Minimal): Pichincha and Galapagos. During this period, the provinces with the highest severity of food insecurity are: Esmeraldas (25 percent) and Pastaza (23 percent). In terms of population size, the provinces most affected by food insecurity are Guayas, with approximately 853,000 people; Manabí, with 289,000; Los Ríos, with 165,000; and Pichincha, with 164,000 people.
The decline in the population’s purchasing power has been aggravated by a number of interrelated factors. Sustained increases in food prices, especially in the basic food basket, have significantly reduced households’ ability to purchase food and essential goods. In parallel, job losses, driven by factors such as violence and extortion, have generated greater economic precariousness, especially in rural areas where underlying poverty is deepest. This situation has triggered an increase in internal migration, further exacerbating problems of access to food and opportunities in the areas of origin.
The social programmes implemented by the state represent a significant step in the fight against food insecurity. However, important gaps remain in the coverage and capacity of these programmes to meet the basic needs of the population. It is critical to continue to evaluate and strengthen these initiatives to help them effectively reach those most in need.
The food insecurity situation at the national level is projected to remain challenging in the period from September 2024 to March 2025. While the overall ranking of provinces will remain similar to the current ranking, a slight increase in the proportion of the population facing Food Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) is expected. This means that more people will experience severe difficulties in accessing sufficient and nutritious food. In other words, although provinces such as Esmeraldas and Pastaza will continue to be classified in Phase 3 (Crisis), the number of people in this and the next phase (Emergency) will increase from 14 percent to 15 percent of the total population.