CDEMA Information Note #2 - Tropical Storm Beryl as of 8:00PM (AST) on July 07, 2018
SYNOPSIS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL:
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, as of 11:00 AM (AST) on July 07, 2018, Beryl, the second (2nd) named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm. As of 8:00 PM the center of Beryl, was located at 12.9N and 53.5W about 550 miles (885km) ESE of the Lesser Antilles with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. The present movement of Beryl is West-North-West or 295o at 17 mph (28 km/h).
CARIBBEAN INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY (CIMH) WEATHER UPDATE
The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) is closely monitoring Beryl as it continues on its trajectory towards the Lesser Antilles. Beryl, now downgraded to Tropical Storm, remains small and compact. As it moves closer to the Caribbean, the cone of uncertainty has expanded and the NHC has dropped the cone slightly south, placing Barbados under Tropical Storm Watch. Currently, Beryl is estimated to have winds near 50 mph; this remains confined to a 20 km radius, with tropical storm force winds extending up to 55km from the centre of the storm. These winds and accompanying wind gusts could detach tree limbs, weaken structures, dislodge loose debris and remove tarpaulin roofs.
The eye of the storm has become exposed in the latest satellite imagery and is embedded in an area of Saharan dust. This is a positive sign for continued weakening. The heaviest area of thunderstorm activity appears to be concentrated to the south of the storm. The twenty-four hour (24 HR) and forty-eight hour (48 HR) suggested rainfall accumulations of 100 mm (4 inches) and 200 mm (8 inches) respectively may result in flash flooding, localized land slippage, and debris flows. The impact of Hurricane Maria on Dominica which resulted in blocked waterways, damage to drainage infrastructure, and exposure of steep-sided slopes, is likely to exacerbate debris flows and flooding.
TS Beryl is expected to move over the southern regions of Dominica late Sunday July 08, into early morning Monday July 09. The current forecast suggest weakening however, the vulnerability of some islands has increased since the passing of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Moderate rainfall and winds can have a more significant impact due to the increased vulnerability. Rainfall may also be enhanced by local topographic conditions. The islands of Dominica, Martinique and St. Lucia should expect increasing rains and thundershowers accompanied by gusty winds. Other islands should expect showers with the occasional thundershowers. Conditions should improve into Monday afternoon.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR CDEMA PARTICIPATING STATES
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbados and Saint Lucia.