The effects of civil conflict/insecurity, displacement, poor production and high food prices on food security, including high levels of malnutrition in many parts of the region, have been magnified by the poor March–May rains, causing food security to deteriorate to high or extreme levels in parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya.
In total, nearly nine million people in the region need immediate humanitarian assistance for the next three to six months, including about 4.6 million people in Ethiopia, 2.6 million people in Somalia, 1.2 million in Kenya, 300,000 people in Uganda’s Karamoja Region, and 130,000 people in Djibouti. Because the effects of the poor March–May rains will persist with the onset of the dry season in most pastoral areas of these countries, the size of the affected population may increase further between now and at least October 2008.
The continued presence of Pestes des Petit Ruminants (PPR) disease in northern pastoral districts of Kenya and the Karamoja Region of Uganda, and the high risk that the disease will spread to adjacent districts in Ethiopia, Somalia, and southward into Tanzania if not controlled threatens regional food security.
High commodity prices, due to high international fuel prices, high costs for inputs, and transportation, and other country–specific local factors continue to affect both rural and urban populations throughout the region. As a result, the number of food insecure people is expected to continue rising, at least until October 2008, especially among market dependent populations in urban areas.
Production prospects from the region’s main bimodal cropping areas are above normal, particularly in Uganda, northern Tanzania, and parts of western Kenya. This is expected to increase food availability and help to reduce the price of staple commodities such as maize, beans, and root crops in the second half of 2008.
