Southern Africa faces multiple strains - 05 Nov 2008

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for Southern Africa in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: Southern Africa faces heightened political and economic strains in the year ahead. The security outlook in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo has deteriorated, and real democratic progress remains elusive. The region will be adversely affected by the global economic slowdown.

ANALYSIS: Southern Africa enters 2009 with more political and economic uncertainty than a year earlier. Political cohesion within the 15-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) continues to be tested by the organisation's evident incapacity to intervene effectively in the region's two most-troubled countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe.

Key insights

- Regional cohesion will continue to be sorely tested by crises in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with limited prospect of effective intervention.

- Multiple elections -- in Angola, Malawi, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia -- will see ruling parties most likely entrenched.

- The global economic crisis will be felt in the region through balance-of-payments strains, as exports decline -- although lower oil and food prices will be welcome by net importers.

- Integration efforts will remain frustrated by overlapping memberships in regional organisations, and trade negotiations with the EU.

Deteriorating security. In addition, the security outlook in both countries has deteriorated over the past year:

1. DRC. The long-simmering conflict in the eastern province of North Kivu was the subject of a peace agreement last January, but numerous breaches in recent months, by both government forces and the main rebel group led by Laurent Nkunda, have displaced several hundred thousand civilians. Real progress requires sustainable agreement and cooperation between the Congolese and Rwandan governments, integration of the various rebel groups into the (currently undisciplined) Congolese army, and withdrawal or repatriation of all foreign forces. However, none of these preconditions is currently in prospect, and the threat of re-entry into the conflict by forces from other neighbouring states remains real. In their absence, current efforts to boost the UN peace-keeping force, MONUC, will provide a palliative at best, the humanitarian crisis will remain dire, and economic prospects for the whole country will remain impaired.

2. Zimbabwe. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won a narrow majority over the ruling ZANU-PF party in the parliamentary elections last March. However, the results of the simultaneous presidential election were withheld for over a month, lending credence to the view that the MDC's leader, Morgan Tsvangarai, had defeated the incumbent, Robert Mugabe, by a substantial margin in a three-way contest. The eventual official results confirmed this but gave Tsvangarai slightly less than 50%, thus requiring a second-round vote, which Tsvangarai reluctantly agreed to contest. However, following a widespread campaign of violent intimidation against MDC supporters, he subsequently felt constrained to withdraw, leaving Mugabe once again in control of the presidency, but with little legitimacy.

Extended negotiations, brokered by the then-president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, led in September to apparent agreement on a power-sharing arrangement, but its terms were contested and subsequent developments have demonstrated that -- despite its narrowing power-base -- ZANU-PF still has no intention of ceding any real powers to the MDC. However, ZANU-PF is riddled with divisions, political violence is growing and the circumstances under which real political change will eventually come about remain highly uncertain.

Meanwhile, the economy continues to implode, with the inflation rate estimated (in early November) at 231 million percent and still rising, the infrastructure and public services crumbling, and food shortages growing. The threat of a major cholera epidemic appears real. The regime's survival depends on the availability of increasingly scarce foreign exchange, which is deployed primarily to meet the needs of the privileged ZANU-PF elites, rather than to sustain economic activity among the general population. The threat of humanitarian catastrophe, with implications well beyond Zimbabwe's borders, will continue to grow.

Elections calendar. Apart from South Africa -- which faces potentially turbulent national and provincial elections in March or April -- five other SADC member states are due to hold national elections in 2009:

- Angola. Following this year's legislative elections -- won overwhelmingly by the ruling MPLA -- the date of the presidential election, due in 2009, has yet to be confirmed. The incumbent president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is likely to stand again and to win. Angola will continue to pursue its ambitions for closer global economic integration (but without serious concessions to increased transparency and accountability), and for a more prominent leadership role within SADC and Central Africa.

- Botswana. National and local government elections are scheduled for October, following which the national assembly will elect the national president. Botswana remains the region's most stable democracy. Both the ruling Botswana Democratic Party and the president, Ian Khama, who succeeded Festus Mogae earlier this year, should be returned to power.

- Malawi. National Assembly and presidential (first round) elections are due on May 19. Under its increasingly autocratic president, Bingu wa Mutharika, Malawi -- still one of the world's poorest countries -- has suffered almost continuous political crisis since the previous election. The National Assembly has been deadlocked and emasculated by the government's refusal to engage with it, and harassment and arbitrary detention of opposition politicians have been commonplace. Despite its poor democratic credentials, the Democratic Progressive Party government has managed the economy relatively well, albeit only with large-scale donor support and deep fertiliser subsidies. The legitimacy of the next government will hinge heavily on Mutharika's willingness to allow 'free and fair' elections to take place.

- Mozambique. Following last week's local elections, which the ruling Frelimo party won overwhelmingly, presidential and national and provincial assembly elections are due in late-2009. The incumbent president, Armando Guebeza, has entrenched his position, and Frelimo's seemingly inexorable march towards one-party dominance is a source of increasing concern. However, the decline in support for the opposition (and formerly rebel) Renamo party cannot be divorced from the growing incompetence of its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, who continues to resist pressure to replace him.

- Namibia. National, local and presidential elections will be held in November. The political dominance of the ruling party, SWAPO, remains undiminished, but the attempt by President Hifikepunye Pohamba to moderate the party's intolerance of political dissent and opposition continues to be resisted by hard-line supporters of ex-President Sam Nujoma. Moreover, Nujoma's own support for Pohamba is now in question, and with several other potential leadership contenders in the wings, SWAPO's internal cohesion may be tested over the coming year.

Economic outlook. In common with the rest of Africa, the SADC region will be hurt by both the recent sharp downturn in commodity prices and the impending recession among its main trading partners, especially in Europe and the United States. While lower oil and food prices will bring welcome relief to net importers of these products, most regional states will suffer balance-of-payments strains in the year ahead as export earnings decline. Moreover, progress towards regional integration will continue to be bedeviled by the problem of overlapping memberships of different regional bodies and the potentially conflicting requirements of SADC's own free-trade agenda and the EU's demands for economic partnership agreements with different groups of Southern and East African states.

CONCLUSION: The numerous recent and forthcoming elections in Southern Africa offer limited hope of democratic advances. Economic prospects are blighted both by unfavourable global conditions and slow progress towards regional integration.