DR Congo + 10 more

SADC seasonal outlook for Apri-Jun 2009


Outlook Highlights

- Normal to above - normal rainfall is expected over Mauritius, northern Madagascar and most parts of continental SADC.

- Northern DRC and northern and eastern Tanzania, and the southwest of contiguous SADC should experience normal to below normal rainfall.


Moderate to heavy rains have persisted in across most of SADC countries during the peak of the season. Consequently, flash floods have occurred in places. Meantime, the April to June 2009 rainfall projections for SADC are mostly normal to above-normal. However, the amounts will be tapering off as the rainfall season terminates in most countries of SADC. Details are on pages 3 and 4.

El Nino -Southern Oscillation

Sea-surface-temperatures (SSTs) throughout the central and eastern tropical Pacific have continued to be slightly below average. This reflects a persisting weak La Nina episode. The low level zonal wind anomalies along the equatorial Pacific, the Southern Oscillation index, and the thermocline depth anomalies all have been near average during the last few months. Meantime, most dynamical and statistical forecast models, indicate likelihood of continuing weak La Nina into beyond austral summer.


- Persistence of negative SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific.

- SOI continues slight positive

- Models project persistent weak La Nina conditions