Attachments
A shifting political calculus by sponsors of the M23 rebel group risks triggering another war in the Great Lakes Region, underscoring the importance of African mediators and global partners acting quickly to stem the fighting.
he fall of Goma to the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels has sent shock waves through the region and risks triggering a wider regional war. Memories remain fresh of the devastating Congo Wars of the late 1990s and early 2000s in which 7 African militaries intervened, and an estimated 5.4 million Congolese died.
The development is particularly alarming because it is widely recognized that M23 is backed by the Rwanda Defense Force (RDF) in support of Rwandan interests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In addition to the estimated 6,000 M23 troops, there are approximately 4,000 Rwandan forces forces currently in the DRC. There is also evidence from UN investigations that M23 is receiving support from Uganda. Reports indicate that Congolese troops, government-aligned militias known as Wazalendo, and foreign mercenaries have surrendered to RDF troops in the DRC.
The fall of Goma to March 23 Movement (M23) rebels has sent shock waves through the region and risks triggering a wider regional war.
The well-planned and executed seizure of Goma, the capital of the strategic and mineral-rich North Kivu Province in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), continues a widening offensive by M23 since 2022 to seize control of territory in the eastern DRC. This has been accompanied by efforts to establish a parallel civilian administration in areas M23 controls as well as expanded mineral extraction. This suggests that the rebel group and their regional backers have longer term objectives in holding and potentially expanding their territorial control.
The attacks have set off a major humanitarian crisis with displaced people fleeing farther south in the already unstable South Kivu, or across the Rwanda border. According to the UN, over 500,000 people have been displaced since January and hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties, many of them civilians. Shops and businesses are being ransacked. Heavy ordnance is landing in civilian areas. At least 17 peacekeepers have been killed including those from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) who are serving in the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO).
Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi is under enormous pressure to respond to the aggression popularly believed to be driven by Rwanda and Uganda. Hundreds of angry protesters in Kinshasa are demanding the government take immediate and decisive action to reclaim the lost territory. Some have set off fires in front of Western embassies out of frustration over the international community’s failure to stop the violence. Others are calling for weapons so they can join the fight in the east.