Attachments
Executive Summary
In this report, the Crisis Analysis Team - DR Congo (CAT-DRC) presents its predictive model for 2024 of four main crises which, in 2023, caused major humanitarian needs in Eastern DRC. These crises were identified through a quantitative analysis of high-impact security incidents (i.e. incidents that caused either major humanitarian constraints, large-scale displacement, or both) as identified and classified by the CAT team throughout 2023.
Despite the multitude of armed actors, including national and international non-state armed actors, the four crises with the greatest impact in 2023 were: (i) CODECO activism in Djugu and Mahagi territory, (ii) ADF and allied groups activism in Mambasa, Irumu and Beni territories, (iii) M23 activism in Rutshuru, Nyiragongo and Masisi territories, and (iv) intercommunity armed conflicts in the Hauts Plateaux of Mwenga, Uvira and Fizi.
The report is divided into three parts: the methodology and limitations of the analytical framework, a brief overview and analysis of incidents in 2023 that had an impact on the humanitarian and civil protection space, and a detailed analysis of the main trends and most likely scenarios for the evolution of various crises in 2024.
The main part of the report presents the analysis of scenarios in terms of their probability of occurrence and their expected impact on stability.